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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ giants week 5, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
1-3
36
TBD
MetLife Stadium
66°F
6 mph
21
NYGGiants
0-4
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
66°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
3
16
3
14
36
Giants
7
0
14
0
21

Spread

PHI logo
-1.5

Total

OVER
53.5

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
439
383
Total Plays
77
70
Yards / Play
5.7
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.16
-0.10
Passing Yards
299
330
Comp/Att
22/39(56%)
24/52(46%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.24
-0.05
Rushing Yards
140
53
Rush Attempts
37
17
Yards / Rush
3.8
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.02
-0.34
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
28
21
Passing 1st downs
12
17
Rushing 1st downs
10
3
Penalty 1st downs
6
1
3rd Down %
47%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
9
5
3rd Down Attempts
19
13
Red Zone %
40%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-17.23
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-3
-4
Sack EPA
-1.13
-0.12
Penalties
8
12
Penalty Yards
88
136
Penalty EPA
-7.55
-12.12

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
+3.0
Current
-1.5
Model
+2.0

Win Probability

Market53.6%
Model46.0%
Spread Pick
NYG logo
Giants+1.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.5%
Cover Probability
53.7%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+70
Home nfelo
1,485
Away nfelo
1,442
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-29.1
Home QB Adjustment
-19.4
Away QB Adjustment
+9.8
Market Regression
-37.6
Final Difference
27.8
Model Spread
-2.0

Quarterbacks

M. Vick headshot

M. Vick

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+9.8
Value
Ptile
10/07
1.0
56
10/14
1.7
61
10/28
0.4
52
11/05
-5.8
13
11/11
-1.9
37
12/30
-2.4
34
09/09
4.6
82
09/15
11.1
97
09/19
-3.8
25
09/29
-0.7
46
E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-19.4
Value
Ptile
11/25
4.8
80
12/03
2.0
62
12/09
2.3
63
12/16
-7.4
8
12/23
-3.6
26
12/30
5.8
86
09/08
4.3
80
09/15
-2.9
33
09/22
-12.2
1
09/29
-4.4
22

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Giants Defense
Eagles logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
6
17
Yards / Game
2
8
Passing Yards / Game
4
2
Rushing Yards / Game
1
12

EPA

EPA / Play
4
7
EPA / Pass
5
8
EPA / Rush
2
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
20
Interceptions / Game
3
12
Fumbles / Game
12
5
Turnover EPA / Game
23
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
22
4th Down Efficiency
11
3
RZ Efficiency
13
15
Giants Offense vs Eagles Defense
Giants logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
28
18
Yards / Game
29
30
Passing Yards / Game
13
31
Rushing Yards / Game
29
13

EPA

EPA / Play
32
21
EPA / Pass
28
20
EPA / Rush
32
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
9
Interceptions / Game
32
6
Fumbles / Game
31
3
Turnover EPA / Game
1
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
24
4th Down Efficiency
15
11
RZ Efficiency
30
12

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/26
-8
L
L
O
12/02
-5
L
W
O
12/09
2
W
W
U
12/13
-21
L
L
O
12/23
-7
L
L
O
12/30
-35
L
L
O
09/09
6
W
W
O
09/15
-3
L
L
O
09/19
-10
L
L
U
09/29
-32
L
L
O
NYG logo

Giants

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/25
28
W
W
U
12/03
-1
L
L
U
12/09
25
W
W
O
12/16
-34
L
L
U
12/23
-19
L
L
U
12/30
35
W
W
O
09/08
-5
L
L
O
09/15
-18
L
L
O
09/22
-38
L
L
U
09/29
-24
L
L
U