PHIEagles
8-7
34
TBD
MetLife Stadium
42°F
5 mph
17
NYGGiants
4-11
TBD
MetLife Stadium
42°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
3
7
7
17
34
Giants
0
3
14
0
17
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
400
397
Total Plays
72
72
Yards / Play
5.6
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.05
-0.23
Passing Yards
279
275
Comp/Att
23/40(57%)
28/47(60%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.14
-0.19
Rushing Yards
121
122
Rush Attempts
31
21
Yards / Rush
3.9
5.8
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.44
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
19
Passing 1st downs
14
13
Rushing 1st downs
9
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
27%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
16
Red Zone %
75%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-10.58
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-10
-26
Sack EPA
-1.70
-5.88
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
55
48
Penalty EPA
-6.78
-3.87
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-108
Home nfelo
1,377
Away nfelo
1,522
Home Field
+41.0
Base HFA
+45.6
Divisional Adj
-20.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-3.9
Home QB Adjustment
+5.7
Away QB Adjustment
+9.6
Market Regression
+28.2
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+9.6
D. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+5.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
30
Yards / Game
13
26
Passing Yards / Game
8
17
Rushing Yards / Game
11
20
EPA
EPA / Play
12
24
EPA / Pass
17
28
EPA / Rush
15
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
13
Interceptions / Game
5
25
Fumbles / Game
28
28
Turnover EPA / Game
19
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
20
4th Down Efficiency
30
24
RZ Efficiency
8
17
Giants Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
15
Yards / Game
23
10
Passing Yards / Game
16
28
Rushing Yards / Game
19
3
EPA
EPA / Play
26
14
EPA / Pass
27
20
EPA / Rush
11
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
16
Interceptions / Game
25
24
Fumbles / Game
32
9
Turnover EPA / Game
2
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
5
4th Down Efficiency
18
27
RZ Efficiency
17
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Giants
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U