PHIEagles
1-1
28
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
89°F
5 mph
3
JAXJaguars
1-1
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
89°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
7
7
14
0
28
Jaguars
0
3
0
0
3
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
373
184
Total Plays
55
69
Yards / Play
6.8
2.7
EPA / Play
+0.20
-0.24
Passing Yards
267
54
Comp/Att
17/31(55%)
13/30(43%)
Yards / Pass
8.6
1.8
EPA / Pass
+0.33
-0.76
Rushing Yards
106
130
Rush Attempts
21
33
Yards / Rush
5.0
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
16
Passing 1st downs
10
6
Rushing 1st downs
4
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
38%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
17
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-1.88
Sacks
3
6
Sack Yards
-24
-51
Sack EPA
-5.39
-8.87
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
84
67
Penalty EPA
-4.45
-4.32
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-58
Home nfelo
1,414
Away nfelo
1,546
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+11.6
Home QB Adjustment
-5.0
Away QB Adjustment
-16.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
M. Vick
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-16.6
D. Garrard
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-5.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
26
Yards / Game
2
27
Passing Yards / Game
3
16
Rushing Yards / Game
5
22
EPA
EPA / Play
5
30
EPA / Pass
11
31
EPA / Rush
1
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
13
Interceptions / Game
12
23
Fumbles / Game
20
28
Turnover EPA / Game
25
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
27
4th Down Efficiency
1
12
RZ Efficiency
15
20
Jaguars Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
21
Yards / Game
13
12
Passing Yards / Game
19
23
Rushing Yards / Game
3
15
EPA
EPA / Play
9
24
EPA / Pass
21
23
EPA / Rush
3
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
4
Interceptions / Game
27
3
Fumbles / Game
9
9
Turnover EPA / Game
10
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
21
4th Down Efficiency
6
9
RZ Efficiency
2
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Jaguars
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U