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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ jaguars week 3, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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PHI logo
PHIEagles
1-1
28
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
89°F
5 mph
3
JAXJaguars
1-1
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
89°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
7
7
14
0
28
Jaguars
0
3
0
0
3

Spread

PHI logo
-3

Total

UNDER
45

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
373
184
Total Plays
55
69
Yards / Play
6.8
2.7
EPA / Play
+0.20
-0.24
Passing Yards
267
54
Comp/Att
17/31(55%)
13/30(43%)
Yards / Pass
8.6
1.8
EPA / Pass
+0.33
-0.76
Rushing Yards
106
130
Rush Attempts
21
33
Yards / Rush
5.0
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
15
16
Passing 1st downs
10
6
Rushing 1st downs
4
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
38%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
17
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-1.88
Sacks
3
6
Sack Yards
-24
-51
Sack EPA
-5.39
-8.87
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
84
67
Penalty EPA
-4.45
-4.32

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-59
Home nfelo
1,415
Away nfelo
1,548
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+11.6
Home QB Adjustment
-5.0
Away QB Adjustment
-16.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

M. Vick headshot

M. Vick

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-16.6
Value
Ptile
11/05
-1.3
42
11/12
-0.1
50
11/19
-1.2
43
11/26
2.9
71
12/03
2.7
69
12/10
-5.3
16
12/16
5.8
88
12/24
-7.2
8
12/31
-2.5
34
09/19
1.3
56
D. Garrard headshot

D. Garrard

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-5.0
Value
Ptile
11/15
3.6
73
11/22
1.3
58
11/29
-1.2
43
12/06
-1.1
43
12/13
-5.3
18
12/17
1.1
56
12/27
-1.3
41
01/03
0.0
49
09/12
5.0
82
09/19
-7.8
7

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Eagles logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
3
26
Yards / Game
2
27
Passing Yards / Game
3
16
Rushing Yards / Game
5
22

EPA

EPA / Play
5
30
EPA / Pass
11
31
EPA / Rush
1
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
13
Interceptions / Game
12
23
Fumbles / Game
20
28
Turnover EPA / Game
25
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
27
4th Down Efficiency
1
12
RZ Efficiency
15
20
Jaguars Offense vs Eagles Defense
Jaguars logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
17
21
Yards / Game
13
12
Passing Yards / Game
19
23
Rushing Yards / Game
3
15

EPA

EPA / Play
9
24
EPA / Pass
21
23
EPA / Rush
3
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
4
Interceptions / Game
27
3
Fumbles / Game
9
9
Turnover EPA / Game
10
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
21
4th Down Efficiency
6
9
RZ Efficiency
2
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/22
4
W
W
U
11/29
3
W
L
O
12/06
27
W
W
U
12/13
7
W
W
O
12/20
14
W
W
U
12/27
3
W
L
O
01/03
-24
L
L
U
01/09
-20
L
L
O
09/12
-7
L
L
U
09/19
3
W
L
O
JAX logo

Jaguars

4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/15
2
W
W
O
11/22
3
W
L
U
11/29
-17
L
L
U
12/06
5
W
W
U
12/13
-4
L
L
U
12/17
-4
L
L
O
12/27
-28
L
L
U
01/03
-6
L
L
O
09/12
7
W
W
U
09/19
-25
L
L
O