PHIEagles
0-1
35
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
032
DETLions
0-1
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
7
14
7
7
35
Lions
7
10
0
15
32
Spread
+6.5
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
409
446
Total Plays
68
74
Yards / Play
6.0
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.15
+0.07
Passing Yards
247
331
Comp/Att
21/34(62%)
25/46(54%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
7.2
EPA / Pass
+0.17
+0.12
Rushing Yards
162
115
Rush Attempts
28
26
Yards / Rush
5.8
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.25
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
22
Passing 1st downs
13
13
Rushing 1st downs
9
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
43%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-7.55
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-37
-6
Sack EPA
-8.52
-1.97
Penalties
9
9
Penalty Yards
75
51
Penalty EPA
-9.65
-7.33
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model71.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-144
Home nfelo
1,307
Away nfelo
1,551
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+16.2
Home QB Adjustment
-3.9
Away QB Adjustment
-20.1
Market Regression
-54.7
Final Difference
-158.9
Model Spread
+6.5
Quarterbacks
M. Vick
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-20.1
S. Hill
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
-3.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
19
Yards / Game
2
21
Passing Yards / Game
3
28
Rushing Yards / Game
5
24
EPA
EPA / Play
5
11
EPA / Pass
11
6
EPA / Rush
1
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
26
Interceptions / Game
12
19
Fumbles / Game
20
2
Turnover EPA / Game
25
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
19
4th Down Efficiency
1
9
RZ Efficiency
15
23
Lions Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
21
Yards / Game
15
12
Passing Yards / Game
6
23
Rushing Yards / Game
23
15
EPA
EPA / Play
20
24
EPA / Pass
19
23
EPA / Rush
17
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
4
Interceptions / Game
16
3
Fumbles / Game
9
9
Turnover EPA / Game
18
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
21
4th Down Efficiency
7
9
RZ Efficiency
2
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Lions
1-9
SU
3-5-2
ATS
5-5
O/U