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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ lions week 2, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
0-1
35
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
32
DETLions
0-1
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
7
14
7
7
35
Lions
7
10
0
15
32

Spread

DET logo
+6.5

Total

OVER
41

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
409
446
Total Plays
68
74
Yards / Play
6.0
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.15
+0.07
Passing Yards
247
331
Comp/Att
21/34(62%)
25/46(54%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
7.2
EPA / Pass
+0.17
+0.12
Rushing Yards
162
115
Rush Attempts
28
26
Yards / Rush
5.8
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.25
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
24
22
Passing 1st downs
13
13
Rushing 1st downs
9
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
43%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-7.55
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-37
-6
Sack EPA
-8.52
-1.97
Penalties
9
9
Penalty Yards
75
51
Penalty EPA
-9.65
-7.33

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market71.4%
Model71.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-140
Home nfelo
1,310
Away nfelo
1,551
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+16.2
Home QB Adjustment
-3.9
Away QB Adjustment
-20.1
Market Regression
-56.4
Final Difference
-158.9
Model Spread
+6.5

Quarterbacks

M. Vick headshot

M. Vick

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-20.1
Value
Ptile
10/29
10.6
98
11/05
-1.3
42
11/12
-0.1
50
11/19
-1.2
43
11/26
2.9
71
12/03
2.7
69
12/10
-5.3
16
12/16
5.8
88
12/24
-7.2
8
12/31
-2.5
34
S. Hill headshot

S. Hill

Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
-3.9
Value
Ptile
12/07
4.2
79
12/14
-1.4
41
12/21
-4.4
19
12/28
4.5
81
09/13
-2.5
35
09/20
-2.4
35
09/27
1.3
58
10/04
-3.2
30
10/11
-5.2
20
10/25
-6.5
13

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Lions Defense
Eagles logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
3
19
Yards / Game
2
21
Passing Yards / Game
3
28
Rushing Yards / Game
5
24

EPA

EPA / Play
5
11
EPA / Pass
11
6
EPA / Rush
1
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
26
Interceptions / Game
12
19
Fumbles / Game
20
2
Turnover EPA / Game
25
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
19
4th Down Efficiency
1
9
RZ Efficiency
15
23
Lions Offense vs Eagles Defense
Lions logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
15
21
Yards / Game
15
12
Passing Yards / Game
6
23
Rushing Yards / Game
23
15

EPA

EPA / Play
20
24
EPA / Pass
19
23
EPA / Rush
17
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
4
Interceptions / Game
16
3
Fumbles / Game
9
9
Turnover EPA / Game
18
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
21
4th Down Efficiency
7
9
RZ Efficiency
2
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/15
-8
L
L
O
11/22
4
W
W
U
11/29
3
W
L
O
12/06
27
W
W
U
12/13
7
W
W
O
12/20
14
W
W
U
12/27
3
W
L
O
01/03
-24
L
L
U
01/09
-20
L
L
O
09/12
-7
L
L
U
DET logo

Lions

1-9
SU
3-5-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/08
-12
L
L
O
11/15
-17
L
P
U
11/22
1
W
L
O
11/26
-22
L
L
U
12/06
-10
L
W
U
12/13
-45
L
L
O
12/20
-7
L
W
O
12/27
-14
L
P
U
01/03
-14
L
L
O
09/12
-5
L
W
U