PHIEagles
2-5
44
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
06
DETLions
0-7
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
7
10
15
6
38
Lions
0
0
0
6
6
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
350
228
Total Plays
62
59
Yards / Play
5.6
3.9
EPA / Play
+0.34
-0.48
Passing Yards
--
171
Comp/Att
11/16(69%)
25/35(71%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.9
EPA / Pass
+0.09
-0.62
Rushing Yards
236
57
Rush Attempts
46
18
Yards / Rush
5.1
3.2
EPA / Rush
+0.28
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
15
Passing 1st downs
6
11
Rushing 1st downs
19
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
50%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
14
Red Zone %
80%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-8.66
Sacks
--
6
Sack Yards
--
-51
Sack EPA
--
-12.69
Penalties
2
8
Penalty Yards
15
50
Penalty EPA
-1.42
-7.35
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-42
Home nfelo
1,370
Away nfelo
1,444
Home Field
+55.0
Base HFA
+40.7
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-23.4
Home QB Adjustment
-10.8
Away QB Adjustment
+12.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Hurts
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+12.6
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
-10.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
31
Yards / Game
13
29
Passing Yards / Game
17
24
Rushing Yards / Game
1
28
EPA
EPA / Play
10
30
EPA / Pass
14
29
EPA / Rush
3
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
19
Interceptions / Game
7
22
Fumbles / Game
4
11
Turnover EPA / Game
27
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
29
4th Down Efficiency
25
28
RZ Efficiency
8
30
Lions Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
19
Yards / Game
22
10
Passing Yards / Game
25
3
Rushing Yards / Game
18
9
EPA
EPA / Play
23
18
EPA / Pass
21
23
EPA / Rush
25
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
26
Interceptions / Game
14
21
Fumbles / Game
20
31
Turnover EPA / Game
8
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
23
4th Down Efficiency
21
9
RZ Efficiency
31
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Lions
0-10
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U