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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ packers week 4, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
1-2
34
TBD
Lambeau Field
60°F
3 mph
27
GBPackers
3-0
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
60°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
0
21
6
7
34
Packers
7
13
7
0
27

Spread

PHI logo
+3.5

Total

OVER
46

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
336
491
Total Plays
61
74
Yards / Play
5.5
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.35
+0.18
Passing Yards
--
414
Comp/Att
16/28(57%)
34/53(64%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.8
EPA / Pass
+0.27
+0.25
Rushing Yards
176
77
Rush Attempts
33
20
Yards / Rush
5.3
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.30
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
24
31
Passing 1st downs
12
19
Rushing 1st downs
10
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
8
3rd Down %
56%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
9
11
Red Zone %
100%
43%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
7
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-10.08
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-8
Sack EPA
--
-5.13
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
--
50
Penalty EPA
--
-4.08

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+82
Home nfelo
1,546
Away nfelo
1,526
Home Field
+66.8
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.2
Net QB Adjustment
-4.5
Home QB Adjustment
-1.4
Away QB Adjustment
+3.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

C. Wentz headshot

C. Wentz

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+3.1
Value
Ptile
10/21
4.2
76
10/28
3.2
70
11/11
4.9
79
11/18
-11.7
2
11/25
-0.9
40
12/03
3.7
73
12/09
2.6
68
09/08
7.5
92
09/15
-4.8
21
09/22
1.0
60
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-1.4
Value
Ptile
11/15
2.1
63
11/25
-2.9
29
12/02
2.2
64
12/09
0.3
48
12/16
-3.0
27
12/23
11.8
98
12/30
-7.1
10
09/05
-3.7
26
09/15
1.3
63
09/22
0.9
59

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Packers Defense
Eagles logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
15
12
Yards / Game
13
18
Passing Yards / Game
8
8
Rushing Yards / Game
11
26

EPA

EPA / Play
12
18
EPA / Pass
17
8
EPA / Rush
16
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
20
Interceptions / Game
5
5
Fumbles / Game
28
20
Turnover EPA / Game
19
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
13
4th Down Efficiency
30
15
RZ Efficiency
8
11
Packers Offense vs Eagles Defense
Packers logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
14
15
Yards / Game
17
10
Passing Yards / Game
13
28
Rushing Yards / Game
15
3

EPA

EPA / Play
7
14
EPA / Pass
10
20
EPA / Rush
9
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
16
Interceptions / Game
1
24
Fumbles / Game
10
9
Turnover EPA / Game
31
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
5
4th Down Efficiency
8
27
RZ Efficiency
2
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/03
15
W
W
U
12/09
-6
L
L
O
12/16
7
W
W
O
12/23
2
W
W
O
12/30
24
W
W
U
01/06
1
W
W
U
01/13
-6
L
W
U
09/08
5
W
L
O
09/15
-4
L
L
U
09/22
-3
L
L
O
GB logo

Packers

5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/15
-3
L
P
O
11/25
-7
L
L
U
12/02
-3
L
L
U
12/09
14
W
W
O
12/16
-7
L
L
U
12/23
6
W
W
O
12/30
-31
L
L
U
09/05
7
W
W
U
09/15
5
W
W
U
09/22
11
W
W
O