PHIEagles
1-2
34
TBD
Lambeau Field
60°F
3 mph
27
GBPackers
3-0
TBD
Lambeau Field
60°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
0
21
6
7
34
Packers
7
13
7
0
27
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
336
491
Total Plays
61
74
Yards / Play
5.5
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.35
+0.18
Passing Yards
--
414
Comp/Att
16/28(57%)
34/53(64%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.8
EPA / Pass
+0.27
+0.25
Rushing Yards
176
77
Rush Attempts
33
20
Yards / Rush
5.3
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.30
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
31
Passing 1st downs
12
19
Rushing 1st downs
10
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
8
3rd Down %
56%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
9
11
Red Zone %
100%
43%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
7
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-10.08
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-8
Sack EPA
--
-5.13
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
--
50
Penalty EPA
--
-4.08
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+82
Home nfelo
1,547
Away nfelo
1,527
Home Field
+66.0
Base HFA
+56.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.0
Net QB Adjustment
-4.5
Home QB Adjustment
-1.4
Away QB Adjustment
+3.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+3.1
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-1.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
12
Yards / Game
13
18
Passing Yards / Game
8
8
Rushing Yards / Game
11
26
EPA
EPA / Play
12
18
EPA / Pass
17
8
EPA / Rush
15
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
20
Interceptions / Game
5
5
Fumbles / Game
28
20
Turnover EPA / Game
19
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
13
4th Down Efficiency
30
15
RZ Efficiency
8
11
Packers Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
15
Yards / Game
17
10
Passing Yards / Game
13
28
Rushing Yards / Game
15
3
EPA
EPA / Play
7
14
EPA / Pass
10
20
EPA / Rush
9
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
16
Interceptions / Game
1
24
Fumbles / Game
10
9
Turnover EPA / Game
31
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
5
4th Down Efficiency
8
27
RZ Efficiency
2
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Packers
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U