PHIEagles
5-2
31
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
021
HOUTexans
4-4
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
7
10
7
7
31
Texans
1
7
0
7
15
Spread
-2
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
483
300
Total Plays
79
59
Yards / Play
6.1
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.14
Passing Yards
293
182
Comp/Att
24/34(71%)
13/27(48%)
Yards / Pass
8.6
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.02
-0.00
Rushing Yards
190
118
Rush Attempts
41
28
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.15
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
30
15
Passing 1st downs
15
8
Rushing 1st downs
12
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
56%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
9
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-16.71
+0.67
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-33
-21
Sack EPA
-6.03
-6.72
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
55
54
Penalty EPA
-2.36
-7.49
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model54.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-14
Home nfelo
1,484
Away nfelo
1,543
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-5.9
Home QB Adjustment
-1.0
Away QB Adjustment
+4.9
Market Regression
+13.4
Final Difference
-32.8
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
N. Foles
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+4.9
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-1.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Eagles Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
6
Yards / Game
4
16
Passing Yards / Game
19
23
Rushing Yards / Game
8
9
EPA
EPA / Play
14
2
EPA / Pass
15
2
EPA / Rush
21
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
27
Interceptions / Game
32
3
Fumbles / Game
31
6
Turnover EPA / Game
1
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
2
4th Down Efficiency
2
7
RZ Efficiency
24
4
Texans Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
22
Yards / Game
16
28
Passing Yards / Game
32
7
Rushing Yards / Game
5
15
EPA
EPA / Play
19
7
EPA / Pass
17
17
EPA / Rush
14
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
19
Interceptions / Game
11
22
Fumbles / Game
19
1
Turnover EPA / Game
16
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
12
4th Down Efficiency
6
4
RZ Efficiency
15
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Eagles
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Texans
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U