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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ texans week 9, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
7-0
29
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
17
HOUTexans
1-5
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
7
7
7
8
29
Texans
7
7
3
0
17

Spread

HOU logo
+13.5

Total

OVER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
362
303
Total Plays
63
57
Yards / Play
5.7
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.15
-0.10
Passing Yards
217
135
Comp/Att
21/27(78%)
13/22(59%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.26
-0.32
Rushing Yards
145
168
Rush Attempts
32
32
Yards / Rush
4.5
5.3
EPA / Rush
+0.15
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
24
20
Passing 1st downs
14
8
Rushing 1st downs
9
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
50%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
10
9
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.18
-8.98
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-26
-19
Sack EPA
-11.10
-5.88
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
31
24
Penalty EPA
-3.97
-2.66

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-14.0
Current
-13.5
Model
-10.5

Win Probability

Market86.2%
Model81.3%
Spread Pick
HOU logo
Texans+13.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+10.4%
Cover Probability
57.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-198
Home nfelo
1,372
Away nfelo
1,593
Home Field
+59.8
Base HFA
+39.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.7
Time Adj
+7.0
Net QB Adjustment
-37.0
Home QB Adjustment
-17.9
Away QB Adjustment
+19.1
Market Regression
+8.2
Final Difference
-254.8
Model Spread
+10.5

Quarterbacks

J. Hurts headshot

J. Hurts

Proj. Value
+1.1
Team Elo Adj
+19.1
Value
Ptile
12/26
-0.1
52
01/02
-0.7
48
01/16
-3.5
27
09/11
4.1
81
09/19
9.9
96
09/25
3.9
81
10/02
-2.0
37
10/09
6.1
89
10/16
-0.7
47
10/30
5.6
88
D. Mills headshot

D. Mills

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-17.9
Value
Ptile
12/26
3.7
79
01/02
-5.3
17
01/09
5.7
87
09/11
-0.4
49
09/18
-7.0
9
09/25
-2.5
32
10/02
-2.8
29
10/09
-3.3
26
10/23
1.6
64
10/30
-6.4
11

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Texans Defense
Eagles logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
2
27
Yards / Game
3
30
Passing Yards / Game
6
17
Rushing Yards / Game
4
32

EPA

EPA / Play
2
12
EPA / Pass
6
13
EPA / Rush
1
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
18
Interceptions / Game
3
7
Fumbles / Game
17
10
Turnover EPA / Game
14
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
14
4th Down Efficiency
4
26
RZ Efficiency
3
19
Texans Offense vs Eagles Defense
Texans logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
30
7
Yards / Game
31
1
Passing Yards / Game
22
3
Rushing Yards / Game
31
16

EPA

EPA / Play
31
5
EPA / Pass
31
1
EPA / Rush
31
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
15
Interceptions / Game
31
9
Fumbles / Game
20
6
Turnover EPA / Game
3
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
12
4th Down Efficiency
16
19
RZ Efficiency
28
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/02
4
W
L
U
01/08
-25
L
L
O
01/16
-16
L
L
O
09/11
3
W
L
O
09/19
17
W
W
U
09/25
16
W
W
U
10/02
8
W
W
O
10/09
3
W
L
U
10/16
9
W
W
O
10/30
22
W
W
O
HOU logo

Texans

2-7-1
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/26
12
W
W
O
01/02
-16
L
L
U
01/09
-3
L
W
O
09/11
0
T
W
U
09/18
-7
L
W
U
09/25
-3
L
P
O
10/02
-10
L
L
O
10/09
7
W
W
U
10/23
-18
L
L
O
10/30
-7
L
L
U