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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. falcons @ 49ers week 5, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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ATL logo
ATLFalcons
2-1
45
TBD
Candlestick Park
58°F
9 mph
10
SF49ers
3-1
SF logo
TBD
Candlestick Park
58°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
14
21
3
7
45
49ers
7
3
0
0
10

Spread

ATL logo
+1

Total

OVER
40

Game Statistics

General
Falcons logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
477
279
Total Plays
72
58
Yards / Play
6.6
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.34
-0.26
Passing Yards
--
179
Comp/Att
22/32(69%)
15/38(39%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.7
EPA / Pass
+0.58
-0.31
Rushing Yards
148
100
Rush Attempts
40
17
Yards / Rush
3.7
5.9
EPA / Rush
+0.16
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
Falcons logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
28
13
Passing 1st downs
14
6
Rushing 1st downs
11
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
57%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
80%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Falcons logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-6.33
-7.77
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-19
Sack EPA
--
-3.39
Penalties
8
8
Penalty Yards
90
92
Penalty EPA
+2.37
-5.29

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market52.2%
Model52.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+16
Home nfelo
1,516
Away nfelo
1,538
Home Field
+46.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-9.3
Home QB Adjustment
+0.6
Away QB Adjustment
+9.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
15.3
Model Spread
-1.0

Quarterbacks

M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+9.9
Value
Ptile
11/23
1.7
63
11/30
3.2
74
12/07
7.6
94
12/14
-1.5
40
12/21
-2.1
36
12/28
-5.9
11
01/03
-3.6
24
09/13
2.1
64
09/20
5.8
86
09/27
0.4
53
S. Hill headshot

S. Hill

Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+0.6
Value
Ptile
11/23
0.9
59
11/30
-2.8
29
12/07
4.2
79
12/14
-1.4
41
12/21
-4.4
19
12/28
4.5
81
09/13
-2.5
35
09/20
-2.4
35
09/27
1.3
58
10/04
-3.2
30

Team Matchup Ranks

Falcons Offense vs 49ers Defense
Falcons logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
13
4
Yards / Game
16
15
Passing Yards / Game
29
9
Rushing Yards / Game
13
6

EPA

EPA / Play
15
2
EPA / Pass
11
5
EPA / Rush
13
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
12
Interceptions / Game
18
10
Fumbles / Game
8
1
Turnover EPA / Game
14
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
10
4th Down Efficiency
3
4
RZ Efficiency
13
2
49ers Offense vs Falcons Defense
49ers logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
18
13
Yards / Game
27
20
Passing Yards / Game
18
22
Rushing Yards / Game
24
9

EPA

EPA / Play
23
14
EPA / Pass
21
24
EPA / Rush
20
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
24
Interceptions / Game
10
16
Fumbles / Game
6
12
Turnover EPA / Game
31
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
32
4th Down Efficiency
10
13
RZ Efficiency
6
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ATL logo

Falcons

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
1-2-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/23
17
W
W
P
11/30
6
W
W
P
12/07
-4
L
L
P
12/14
3
W
L
P
12/21
7
W
W
P
12/28
4
W
L
P
01/03
-6
L
L
P
09/13
12
W
W
U
09/20
8
W
W
O
09/27
-16
L
L
U
SF logo

49ers

7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
1-3-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/23
-13
L
L
P
11/30
7
W
W
P
12/07
10
W
W
P
12/14
-5
L
W
P
12/21
1
W
L
P
12/28
3
W
W
P
09/13
4
W
W
U
09/20
13
W
W
U
09/27
-3
L
W
O
10/04
35
W
W
U