ATLFalcons
2-1
45
TBD
Candlestick Park
58°F
9 mph
10
SF49ers
3-1
TBD
Candlestick Park
58°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
14
21
3
7
45
49ers
7
3
0
0
10
Spread
+1
Total
OVER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
477
279
Total Plays
72
58
Yards / Play
6.6
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.34
-0.26
Passing Yards
--
179
Comp/Att
22/32(69%)
15/38(39%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.7
EPA / Pass
+0.58
-0.31
Rushing Yards
148
100
Rush Attempts
40
17
Yards / Rush
3.7
5.9
EPA / Rush
+0.16
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
13
Passing 1st downs
14
6
Rushing 1st downs
11
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
57%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
80%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-6.33
-7.77
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-19
Sack EPA
--
-3.39
Penalties
8
8
Penalty Yards
90
92
Penalty EPA
+2.37
-5.29
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model52.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+15
Home nfelo
1,516
Away nfelo
1,538
Home Field
+46.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-9.3
Home QB Adjustment
+0.6
Away QB Adjustment
+9.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
15.3
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+9.9
S. Hill
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+0.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
4
Yards / Game
16
15
Passing Yards / Game
29
9
Rushing Yards / Game
13
6
EPA
EPA / Play
15
2
EPA / Pass
11
5
EPA / Rush
13
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
12
Interceptions / Game
18
10
Fumbles / Game
8
1
Turnover EPA / Game
14
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
10
4th Down Efficiency
3
4
RZ Efficiency
13
2
49ers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
13
Yards / Game
27
20
Passing Yards / Game
18
22
Rushing Yards / Game
24
9
EPA
EPA / Play
23
14
EPA / Pass
21
24
EPA / Rush
20
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
24
Interceptions / Game
10
16
Fumbles / Game
6
12
Turnover EPA / Game
31
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
32
4th Down Efficiency
10
13
RZ Efficiency
6
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
1-2-7
O/U
49ers
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
1-3-6
O/U