ATLFalcons
4-9
29
TBD
Levi's Stadium
55°F
6 mph
22
SF49ers
11-2
TBD
Levi's Stadium
55°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
10
0
13
23
49ers
0
10
3
9
22
Spread
+10
Total
OVER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
290
313
Total Plays
62
62
Yards / Play
4.7
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.14
+0.01
Passing Yards
201
193
Comp/Att
25/39(64%)
22/34(65%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
5.7
EPA / Pass
+0.16
+0.06
Rushing Yards
89
120
Rush Attempts
21
27
Yards / Rush
4.2
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.08
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
20
Passing 1st downs
14
10
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
54%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
--
-5.00
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-9
-7
Sack EPA
-2.13
-1.62
Penalties
11
7
Penalty Yards
98
67
Penalty EPA
-10.20
-7.59
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+269
Home nfelo
1,636
Away nfelo
1,483
Home Field
+80.6
Base HFA
+47.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.5
Time Adj
+16.9
Net QB Adjustment
+34.5
Home QB Adjustment
+15.1
Away QB Adjustment
-19.4
Market Regression
-24.5
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-19.4
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+15.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
7
Yards / Game
5
2
Passing Yards / Game
2
2
Rushing Yards / Game
30
12
EPA
EPA / Play
13
3
EPA / Pass
15
2
EPA / Rush
23
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
22
Interceptions / Game
21
7
Fumbles / Game
18
5
Turnover EPA / Game
10
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
2
4th Down Efficiency
4
8
RZ Efficiency
25
27
49ers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
22
Yards / Game
8
20
Passing Yards / Game
15
1
Rushing Yards / Game
2
15
EPA
EPA / Play
4
21
EPA / Pass
5
24
EPA / Rush
8
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
6
Interceptions / Game
20
18
Fumbles / Game
26
14
Turnover EPA / Game
13
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
21
4th Down Efficiency
12
26
RZ Efficiency
19
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
49ers
8-2
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U