ATLFalcons
-
12
TBD
Soldier Field
76°F
7 mph
30
CHIBears
-
TBD
Soldier Field
76°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
3
0
3
0
6
Bears
10
6
8
0
24
Spread
+2
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
386
377
Total Plays
67
64
Yards / Play
5.8
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.27
-0.03
Passing Yards
276
289
Comp/Att
31/47(66%)
22/32(69%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
9.0
EPA / Pass
-0.32
+0.02
Rushing Yards
110
88
Rush Attempts
15
27
Yards / Rush
7.3
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
17
Passing 1st downs
14
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
31%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-15.62
-9.66
Sacks
5
5
Sack Yards
-43
-23
Sack EPA
-12.51
-5.31
Penalties
9
8
Penalty Yards
65
56
Penalty EPA
-5.92
-4.06
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.0
Model
+1.0
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model47.6%
Spread Pick
Bears+2.0
Expected Value
+0.9%
Cover Probability
51.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+57
Home nfelo
1,561
Away nfelo
1,569
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-7.6
Home QB Adjustment
-3.2
Away QB Adjustment
+4.4
Market Regression
+7.1
Final Difference
16.9
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+4.4
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-3.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
14
Yards / Game
12
17
Passing Yards / Game
24
22
Rushing Yards / Game
18
5
EPA
EPA / Play
13
4
EPA / Pass
9
9
EPA / Rush
23
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
5
Interceptions / Game
8
5
Fumbles / Game
9
18
Turnover EPA / Game
28
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
9
4th Down Efficiency
30
14
RZ Efficiency
13
7
Bears Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
17
Yards / Game
25
13
Passing Yards / Game
30
8
Rushing Yards / Game
9
7
EPA
EPA / Play
24
14
EPA / Pass
30
16
EPA / Rush
19
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
28
Interceptions / Game
25
11
Fumbles / Game
22
17
Turnover EPA / Game
8
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
30
4th Down Efficiency
30
27
RZ Efficiency
12
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
6-2-2
O/U
Bears
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U