ATLFalcons
7-8
17
TBD
Soldier Field
32°F
5 mph
37
CHIBears
6-9
TBD
Soldier Field
32°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
7
3
7
17
Bears
7
14
6
10
37
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
39
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
307
432
Total Plays
59
72
Yards / Play
5.2
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.23
+0.09
Passing Yards
173
240
Comp/Att
13/33(39%)
20/32(63%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
7.5
EPA / Pass
-0.28
+0.17
Rushing Yards
134
192
Rush Attempts
24
37
Yards / Rush
5.6
5.2
EPA / Rush
+0.20
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
22
Passing 1st downs
5
12
Rushing 1st downs
8
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
31%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
0%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
4
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-12.43
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-7
-28
Sack EPA
-2.39
-3.39
Penalties
1
5
Penalty Yards
--
55
Penalty EPA
--
-7.88
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+59
Home nfelo
1,472
Away nfelo
1,459
Home Field
+53.5
Base HFA
+45.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.0
Time Adj
-8.2
Net QB Adjustment
-7.9
Home QB Adjustment
+2.9
Away QB Adjustment
+10.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
T. Heinicke
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+10.8
J. Fields
Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
19
Yards / Game
17
12
Passing Yards / Game
27
9
Rushing Yards / Game
8
1
EPA
EPA / Play
27
8
EPA / Pass
23
18
EPA / Rush
25
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
7
Interceptions / Game
27
1
Fumbles / Game
22
26
Turnover EPA / Game
6
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
29
4th Down Efficiency
29
4
RZ Efficiency
30
31
Bears Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
17
Yards / Game
21
10
Passing Yards / Game
23
10
Rushing Yards / Game
2
19
EPA
EPA / Play
23
12
EPA / Pass
25
14
EPA / Rush
3
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
20
Interceptions / Game
22
29
Fumbles / Game
16
21
Turnover EPA / Game
10
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
3
4th Down Efficiency
16
12
RZ Efficiency
14
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bears
5-5
SU
6-2-2
ATS
3-7
O/U