nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. falcons @ bears week 17, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

ATL logo
ATLFalcons
7-8
17
TBD
Soldier Field
32°F
5 mph
37
CHIBears
6-9
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
32°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
7
3
7
17
Bears
7
14
6
10
37

Spread

CHI logo
-2.5

Total

OVER
39

Game Statistics

General
Falcons logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
307
432
Total Plays
59
72
Yards / Play
5.2
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.23
+0.09
Passing Yards
173
240
Comp/Att
13/33(39%)
20/32(63%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
7.5
EPA / Pass
-0.28
+0.17
Rushing Yards
134
192
Rush Attempts
24
37
Yards / Rush
5.6
5.2
EPA / Rush
+0.20
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
Falcons logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
15
22
Passing 1st downs
5
12
Rushing 1st downs
8
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
31%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
0%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Falcons logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
4
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-12.43
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-7
-28
Sack EPA
-2.39
-3.39
Penalties
1
5
Penalty Yards
--
55
Penalty EPA
--
-7.88

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CHI logo
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+57
Home nfelo
1,472
Away nfelo
1,460
Home Field
+53.5
Base HFA
+45.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.0
Time Adj
-8.2
Net QB Adjustment
-7.9
Home QB Adjustment
+2.9
Away QB Adjustment
+10.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

T. Heinicke headshot

T. Heinicke

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+10.8
Value
Ptile
11/06
-4.8
18
11/14
-4.7
20
11/20
-1.9
38
11/27
-3.6
24
12/04
0.2
54
12/18
0.4
55
12/24
-1.7
40
11/05
-0.9
44
11/12
-5.8
15
12/24
2.3
66
J. Fields headshot

J. Fields

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+2.9
Value
Ptile
09/17
-8.8
5
09/24
-6.5
12
10/01
7.1
91
10/05
5.7
84
10/15
-8.7
6
11/19
3.3
72
11/27
1.1
56
12/10
1.7
60
12/17
-5.8
15
12/24
3.7
74

Team Matchup Ranks

Falcons Offense vs Bears Defense
Falcons logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
26
19
Yards / Game
17
12
Passing Yards / Game
27
9
Rushing Yards / Game
8
1

EPA

EPA / Play
27
8
EPA / Pass
23
18
EPA / Rush
25
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
7
Interceptions / Game
27
1
Fumbles / Game
22
26
Turnover EPA / Game
6
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
29
4th Down Efficiency
29
4
RZ Efficiency
30
31
Bears Offense vs Falcons Defense
Bears logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
19
17
Yards / Game
21
10
Passing Yards / Game
23
10
Rushing Yards / Game
2
19

EPA

EPA / Play
23
12
EPA / Pass
25
14
EPA / Rush
3
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
20
Interceptions / Game
22
29
Fumbles / Game
16
21
Turnover EPA / Game
10
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
3
4th Down Efficiency
16
12
RZ Efficiency
14
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ATL logo

Falcons

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/15
-8
L
L
U
10/22
3
W
W
U
10/29
-5
L
L
O
11/05
-3
L
L
O
11/12
-2
L
L
O
11/26
9
W
W
U
12/03
5
W
W
U
12/10
-4
L
L
O
12/17
-2
L
L
U
12/24
19
W
W
U
CHI logo

Bears

5-5
SU
6-2-2
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/15
-6
L
L
U
10/22
18
W
W
O
10/29
-17
L
L
U
11/05
-7
L
W
U
11/09
3
W
P
U
11/19
-5
L
W
O
11/27
2
W
W
U
12/10
15
W
W
U
12/17
-3
L
P
U
12/24
11
W
W
O