ATLFalcons
3-1
20
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
71°F
9 mph
10
CLEBrowns
1-3
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
71°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
6
7
1
14
Browns
0
7
3
0
10
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
338
269
Total Plays
61
62
Yards / Play
5.5
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.21
Passing Yards
173
221
Comp/Att
16/28(57%)
25/39(64%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
5.7
EPA / Pass
+0.04
-0.17
Rushing Yards
165
48
Rush Attempts
31
20
Yards / Rush
5.3
2.4
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.61
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
18
Passing 1st downs
9
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
1
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
40%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.98
-17.00
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-14
-25
Sack EPA
-7.50
-4.19
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
60
58
Penalty EPA
+3.37
-6.48
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-29
Home nfelo
1,379
Away nfelo
1,543
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+51.3
Home QB Adjustment
+56.7
Away QB Adjustment
+5.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+5.4
S. Wallace
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+56.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
12
Yards / Game
19
22
Passing Yards / Game
26
11
Rushing Yards / Game
13
26
EPA
EPA / Play
7
23
EPA / Pass
7
25
EPA / Rush
16
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
16
Interceptions / Game
4
8
Fumbles / Game
15
17
Turnover EPA / Game
30
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
28
4th Down Efficiency
4
31
RZ Efficiency
6
8
Browns Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
6
Yards / Game
30
19
Passing Yards / Game
28
29
Rushing Yards / Game
21
10
EPA
EPA / Play
23
10
EPA / Pass
27
16
EPA / Rush
22
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
28
Interceptions / Game
19
4
Fumbles / Game
13
27
Turnover EPA / Game
11
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
24
4th Down Efficiency
1
21
RZ Efficiency
27
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U
Browns
5-5
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U