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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. falcons @ buccaneers week 3, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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ATL logo
ATLFalcons
1-1
13
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
89°F
9 mph
16
TBBuccaneers
1-1
TB logo
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
89°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
3
0
10
13
Buccaneers
3
10
3
0
16

Spread

TB logo
-1

Total

UNDER
45

Game Statistics

General
Falcons logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
325
295
Total Plays
66
68
Yards / Play
4.9
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.12
-0.10
Passing Yards
295
--
Comp/Att
26/47(55%)
22/32(69%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
--
EPA / Pass
-0.11
-0.19
Rushing Yards
30
115
Rush Attempts
15
36
Yards / Rush
2.0
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.25
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
Falcons logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
21
20
Passing 1st downs
18
10
Rushing 1st downs
2
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
38%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
25%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Falcons logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-9.90
-11.29
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-35
--
Sack EPA
-13.12
--
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
50
66
Penalty EPA
-6.71
-6.79

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TB logo
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-0.5

Win Probability

Market52.2%
Model51.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-12
Home nfelo
1,478
Away nfelo
1,560
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+13.7
Home QB Adjustment
+11.1
Away QB Adjustment
-2.6
Market Regression
+25.7
Final Difference
9.7
Model Spread
-0.5

Quarterbacks

M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-2.6
Value
Ptile
11/21
6.8
90
11/28
4.4
78
12/05
-2.1
35
12/12
-2.1
35
12/19
-0.4
46
12/27
-0.1
48
01/02
5.2
84
01/15
-5.1
18
09/11
-2.5
34
09/18
-1.8
37
J. Freeman headshot

J. Freeman

Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
+11.1
Value
Ptile
11/14
6.4
89
11/21
0.3
51
11/28
0.0
49
12/05
-3.2
28
12/12
1.6
58
12/19
1.8
59
12/26
9.9
97
01/02
4.7
81
09/11
1.6
63
09/18
1.1
60

Team Matchup Ranks

Falcons Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Falcons logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
10
32
Yards / Game
12
30
Passing Yards / Game
24
5
Rushing Yards / Game
18
32

EPA

EPA / Play
13
32
EPA / Pass
9
30
EPA / Rush
23
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
21
Interceptions / Game
8
20
Fumbles / Game
9
4
Turnover EPA / Game
28
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
20
4th Down Efficiency
30
31
RZ Efficiency
13
25
Buccaneers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Buccaneers logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
27
17
Yards / Game
21
13
Passing Yards / Game
14
8
Rushing Yards / Game
31
7

EPA

EPA / Play
27
14
EPA / Pass
24
16
EPA / Rush
29
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
28
Interceptions / Game
29
11
Fumbles / Game
29
17
Turnover EPA / Game
1
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
30
4th Down Efficiency
18
27
RZ Efficiency
17
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ATL logo

Falcons

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
6-2-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/21
17
W
W
O
11/28
3
W
W
U
12/05
4
W
W
O
12/12
21
W
W
P
12/19
16
W
W
O
12/27
-3
L
L
U
01/02
21
W
W
P
01/15
-27
L
L
O
09/11
-18
L
L
O
09/18
4
W
W
O
TB logo

Buccaneers

6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/14
15
W
W
O
11/21
21
W
W
U
11/28
-7
L
W
U
12/05
-4
L
L
O
12/12
1
W
P
U
12/19
-3
L
L
P
12/26
23
W
W
O
01/02
10
W
W
U
09/11
-7
L
L
O
09/18
4
W
W
O