ATLFalcons
1-1
13
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
89°F
9 mph
16
TBBuccaneers
1-1
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
89°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
3
0
10
13
Buccaneers
3
10
3
0
16
Spread
-1
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
325
295
Total Plays
66
68
Yards / Play
4.9
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.12
-0.10
Passing Yards
295
--
Comp/Att
26/47(55%)
22/32(69%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
--
EPA / Pass
-0.11
-0.19
Rushing Yards
30
115
Rush Attempts
15
36
Yards / Rush
2.0
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.25
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
20
Passing 1st downs
18
10
Rushing 1st downs
2
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
38%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
25%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-9.90
-11.29
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-35
--
Sack EPA
-13.12
--
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
50
66
Penalty EPA
-6.71
-6.79
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-0.5
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model51.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-12
Home nfelo
1,478
Away nfelo
1,560
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+13.7
Home QB Adjustment
+11.1
Away QB Adjustment
-2.6
Market Regression
+25.7
Final Difference
9.7
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-2.6
J. Freeman
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
+11.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
32
Yards / Game
12
30
Passing Yards / Game
24
5
Rushing Yards / Game
18
32
EPA
EPA / Play
13
32
EPA / Pass
9
30
EPA / Rush
23
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
21
Interceptions / Game
8
20
Fumbles / Game
9
4
Turnover EPA / Game
28
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
20
4th Down Efficiency
30
31
RZ Efficiency
13
25
Buccaneers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
17
Yards / Game
21
13
Passing Yards / Game
14
8
Rushing Yards / Game
31
7
EPA
EPA / Play
27
14
EPA / Pass
24
16
EPA / Rush
29
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
28
Interceptions / Game
29
11
Fumbles / Game
29
17
Turnover EPA / Game
1
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
30
4th Down Efficiency
18
27
RZ Efficiency
17
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
6-2-2
O/U
Buccaneers
6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U