ATLFalcons
4-3
31
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
79°F
6 mph
26
TBBuccaneers
4-3
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
79°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
7
17
7
0
31
Buccaneers
7
10
0
7
24
Spread
-1.5
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
394
432
Total Plays
60
72
Yards / Play
6.6
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.20
+0.05
Passing Yards
265
--
Comp/Att
23/29(79%)
37/50(74%)
Yards / Pass
9.1
--
EPA / Pass
+0.52
+0.17
Rushing Yards
129
102
Rush Attempts
29
22
Yards / Rush
4.4
4.6
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
24
Passing 1st downs
11
16
Rushing 1st downs
8
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
50%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
6
9
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-12.73
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-11
--
Sack EPA
-2.41
--
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
43
45
Penalty EPA
-5.08
-5.21
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
+1.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model47.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+54
Home nfelo
1,507
Away nfelo
1,506
Home Field
+39.6
Base HFA
+44.1
Divisional Adj
-19.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+13.2
Home QB Adjustment
+23.0
Away QB Adjustment
+9.8
Market Regression
+10.8
Final Difference
18.9
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+9.8
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
+23.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
17
Yards / Game
6
19
Passing Yards / Game
7
25
Rushing Yards / Game
10
3
EPA
EPA / Play
15
18
EPA / Pass
15
22
EPA / Rush
11
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
18
Interceptions / Game
29
29
Fumbles / Game
6
13
Turnover EPA / Game
8
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
15
4th Down Efficiency
5
24
RZ Efficiency
20
7
Buccaneers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
23
Yards / Game
3
22
Passing Yards / Game
8
3
Rushing Yards / Game
5
15
EPA
EPA / Play
5
23
EPA / Pass
4
28
EPA / Rush
7
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
25
Interceptions / Game
24
16
Fumbles / Game
19
27
Turnover EPA / Game
14
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
31
4th Down Efficiency
8
13
RZ Efficiency
4
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Buccaneers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U