ATLFalcons
2-6
27
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
64°F
5 mph
17
TBBuccaneers
1-7
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
64°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
7
6
3
11
27
Buccaneers
3
7
0
7
17
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
324
373
Total Plays
61
70
Yards / Play
5.3
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.22
-0.02
Passing Yards
214
281
Comp/Att
20/32(63%)
27/43(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.32
+0.13
Rushing Yards
110
92
Rush Attempts
28
23
Yards / Rush
3.9
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
23
Passing 1st downs
10
17
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
50%
71%
3rd Down Conversions
6
12
3rd Down Attempts
12
17
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-10.83
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-7
-20
Sack EPA
-0.92
-4.67
Penalties
5
10
Penalty Yards
30
79
Penalty EPA
-3.17
-9.55
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-22
Home nfelo
1,422
Away nfelo
1,462
Home Field
+7.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+10.8
Home QB Adjustment
+11.0
Away QB Adjustment
+0.2
Market Regression
-69.4
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+0.2
J. McCown
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+11.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
25
Yards / Game
7
24
Passing Yards / Game
2
24
Rushing Yards / Game
24
18
EPA
EPA / Play
11
24
EPA / Pass
11
28
EPA / Rush
22
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
3
Interceptions / Game
17
16
Fumbles / Game
15
10
Turnover EPA / Game
14
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
27
4th Down Efficiency
14
24
RZ Efficiency
6
29
Buccaneers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
27
Yards / Game
30
32
Passing Yards / Game
14
8
Rushing Yards / Game
29
21
EPA
EPA / Play
29
28
EPA / Pass
27
29
EPA / Rush
25
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
20
Interceptions / Game
31
13
Fumbles / Game
22
16
Turnover EPA / Game
6
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
32
4th Down Efficiency
29
19
RZ Efficiency
18
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Buccaneers
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U