ATLFalcons
9-2
28
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
72°F
9 mph
24
TBBuccaneers
7-4
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
72°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
7
7
0
14
28
Buccaneers
7
7
3
7
24
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
290
325
Total Plays
63
69
Yards / Play
4.6
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.13
+0.02
Passing Yards
--
174
Comp/Att
18/36(50%)
20/39(51%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.5
EPA / Pass
+0.07
-0.06
Rushing Yards
85
151
Rush Attempts
27
29
Yards / Rush
3.1
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.07
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
19
Passing 1st downs
12
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
55%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
75%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.65
-5.89
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-9
Sack EPA
--
-1.66
Penalties
6
9
Penalty Yards
55
102
Penalty EPA
-5.69
-13.49
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-49
Home nfelo
1,469
Away nfelo
1,566
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-7.3
Home QB Adjustment
+22.8
Away QB Adjustment
+30.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+30.2
J. Freeman
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
+22.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
7
Yards / Game
19
15
Passing Yards / Game
26
1
Rushing Yards / Game
13
28
EPA
EPA / Play
7
22
EPA / Pass
7
14
EPA / Rush
16
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
23
Interceptions / Game
4
8
Fumbles / Game
15
14
Turnover EPA / Game
30
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
30
4th Down Efficiency
4
21
RZ Efficiency
6
19
Buccaneers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
6
Yards / Game
18
19
Passing Yards / Game
17
29
Rushing Yards / Game
8
10
EPA
EPA / Play
12
10
EPA / Pass
8
16
EPA / Rush
9
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
28
Interceptions / Game
2
4
Fumbles / Game
19
27
Turnover EPA / Game
24
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
24
4th Down Efficiency
1
21
RZ Efficiency
17
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Buccaneers
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U