ATLFalcons
6-5
19
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
79°F
18 mph
23
TBBuccaneers
5-6
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
79°F
18 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
9
3
7
19
Buccaneers
7
0
9
7
23
Spread
0
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
319
388
Total Plays
66
66
Yards / Play
4.8
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.04
Passing Yards
255
222
Comp/Att
30/45(67%)
18/28(64%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
7.9
EPA / Pass
-0.03
+0.20
Rushing Yards
64
166
Rush Attempts
18
37
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.13
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
25
Passing 1st downs
14
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
50%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
16
11
Red Zone %
33%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.40
-7.75
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-14
-5
Sack EPA
-3.71
-1.18
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
58
53
Penalty EPA
-7.23
-5.90
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
N/A
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market50.0%
Model50.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-7
Home nfelo
1,386
Away nfelo
1,465
Home Field
+54.5
Base HFA
+60.6
Divisional Adj
-27.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+17.5
Home QB Adjustment
+12.9
Away QB Adjustment
-4.6
Market Regression
-18.8
Final Difference
--
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-4.6
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+12.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
26
Yards / Game
5
11
Passing Yards / Game
4
25
Rushing Yards / Game
19
9
EPA
EPA / Play
16
25
EPA / Pass
8
27
EPA / Rush
29
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
28
Interceptions / Game
24
20
Fumbles / Game
29
5
Turnover EPA / Game
7
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
30
4th Down Efficiency
14
27
RZ Efficiency
17
30
Buccaneers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
14
Yards / Game
4
15
Passing Yards / Game
24
3
Rushing Yards / Game
4
14
EPA
EPA / Play
20
15
EPA / Pass
13
17
EPA / Rush
13
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
24
Interceptions / Game
20
10
Fumbles / Game
21
23
Turnover EPA / Game
9
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
27
4th Down Efficiency
11
5
RZ Efficiency
23
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
Buccaneers
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U