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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. falcons @ buccaneers week 15, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ATL logo
ATLFalcons
4-9
29
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
56°F
5 mph
28
TBBuccaneers
7-6
TB logo
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
56°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
14
0
15
29
Buccaneers
7
6
7
8
28

Spread

ATL logo
+6

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Falcons logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
476
340
Total Plays
68
62
Yards / Play
7.0
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.22
+0.21
Passing Yards
365
252
Comp/Att
30/46(65%)
19/35(54%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
7.2
EPA / Pass
+0.28
+0.13
Rushing Yards
111
88
Rush Attempts
21
22
Yards / Rush
5.3
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.11
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
Falcons logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
27
28
Passing 1st downs
19
16
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
7
3rd Down %
45%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
9
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Falcons logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.99
-3.92
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-8
-27
Sack EPA
-1.24
-6.01
Penalties
19
4
Penalty Yards
125
--
Penalty EPA
-16.40
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TB logo
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model65.1%
Spread Pick
ATL logo
Falcons+6.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+73
Home nfelo
1,473
Away nfelo
1,402
Home Field
+40.7
Base HFA
+45.4
Divisional Adj
-20.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-38.5
Home QB Adjustment
-14.3
Away QB Adjustment
+24.2
Market Regression
-7.3
Final Difference
108.7
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+24.2
Value
Ptile
11/03
2.8
68
11/10
-3.2
26
11/17
-5.7
13
12/01
-7.9
6
12/08
-1.6
37
12/16
-7.6
6
10/26
-2.9
29
11/23
-2.1
36
11/30
-0.1
51
12/07
-7.6
7
B. Mayfield headshot

B. Mayfield

Proj. Value
-0.1
Team Elo Adj
-14.3
Value
Ptile
09/28
0.6
56
10/05
11.1
99
10/12
4.5
81
10/20
-6.2
12
10/26
-5.6
15
11/09
4.2
78
11/16
2.6
69
11/23
-9.9
3
11/30
-0.4
46
12/07
-2.7
32

Team Matchup Ranks

Falcons Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Falcons logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
23
20
Yards / Game
14
20
Passing Yards / Game
18
19
Rushing Yards / Game
7
6

EPA

EPA / Play
23
14
EPA / Pass
19
20
EPA / Rush
21
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
16
Interceptions / Game
4
13
Fumbles / Game
28
11
Turnover EPA / Game
21
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
15
4th Down Efficiency
21
6
RZ Efficiency
10
32
Buccaneers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Buccaneers logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
18
19
Yards / Game
21
15
Passing Yards / Game
9
25
Rushing Yards / Game
19
24

EPA

EPA / Play
21
15
EPA / Pass
23
13
EPA / Rush
9
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
29
Interceptions / Game
12
7
Fumbles / Game
6
23
Turnover EPA / Game
26
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
18
4th Down Efficiency
27
20
RZ Efficiency
24
12

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ATL logo

Falcons

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/28
7
W
W
O
10/13
10
W
W
U
10/19
-10
L
L
U
10/26
-24
L
L
U
11/02
-1
L
W
O
11/09
-6
L
W
O
11/16
-3
L
L
O
11/23
14
W
W
U
11/30
-3
L
L
O
12/07
-28
L
L
O
TB logo

Buccaneers

4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/28
-6
L
L
O
10/05
3
W
W
O
10/12
11
W
W
O
10/20
-15
L
L
U
10/26
20
W
W
U
11/09
-5
L
L
O
11/16
-12
L
L
O
11/23
-27
L
L
U
11/30
3
W
L
U
12/07
-4
L
L
O