ATLFalcons
8-7
20
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
44°F
5 mph
10
TBBuccaneers
3-12
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
44°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
10
0
10
20
Buccaneers
3
0
0
7
10
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
397
206
Total Plays
73
55
Yards / Play
5.4
3.7
EPA / Play
-0.06
-0.30
Passing Yards
214
168
Comp/Att
23/35(66%)
16/32(50%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
5.3
EPA / Pass
+0.10
-0.32
Rushing Yards
183
38
Rush Attempts
37
22
Yards / Rush
4.9
1.7
EPA / Rush
+0.00
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
13
Passing 1st downs
11
10
Rushing 1st downs
11
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
47%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
40%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-12.31
-8.71
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-9
-6
Sack EPA
-2.21
-1.23
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
--
51
Penalty EPA
--
+0.07
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-104
Home nfelo
1,381
Away nfelo
1,549
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+8.1
Home QB Adjustment
+5.1
Away QB Adjustment
-3.0
Market Regression
-11.4
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-3.0
J. Freeman
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
+5.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
27
Yards / Game
16
26
Passing Yards / Game
29
11
Rushing Yards / Game
13
32
EPA
EPA / Play
15
19
EPA / Pass
11
22
EPA / Rush
13
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
20
Interceptions / Game
18
9
Fumbles / Game
8
23
Turnover EPA / Game
14
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
23
4th Down Efficiency
3
26
RZ Efficiency
13
14
Buccaneers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
13
Yards / Game
28
20
Passing Yards / Game
25
22
Rushing Yards / Game
22
9
EPA
EPA / Play
31
14
EPA / Pass
28
24
EPA / Rush
24
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
24
Interceptions / Game
31
16
Fumbles / Game
2
12
Turnover EPA / Game
4
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
32
4th Down Efficiency
23
13
RZ Efficiency
14
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Buccaneers
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U