nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. falcons @ cardinals week 6, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

ATL logo
ATLFalcons
1-4
33
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
34
ARICardinals
1-3
ARI logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
7
3
10
13
33
Cardinals
3
17
7
7
34

Spread

ARI logo
+3

Total

OVER
52.5

Game Statistics

General
Falcons logo
Cardinals logo
Total Yards
444
442
Total Plays
63
66
Yards / Play
7.0
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.32
+0.28
Passing Yards
341
--
Comp/Att
30/36(83%)
27/37(73%)
Yards / Pass
9.5
--
EPA / Pass
+0.54
+0.56
Rushing Yards
103
102
Rush Attempts
25
29
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
Falcons logo
Cardinals logo
1st Downs
31
24
Passing 1st downs
20
16
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
55%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
80%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Falcons logo
Cardinals logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-15
--
Sack EPA
-4.38
--
Penalties
8
8
Penalty Yards
72
57
Penalty EPA
-6.63
-7.25

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model55.4%
Spread Pick
ARI logo
Cardinals+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-4
Home nfelo
1,361
Away nfelo
1,458
Home Field
+93.0
Base HFA
+54.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.0
Time Adj
+19.5
Net QB Adjustment
+0.0
Home QB Adjustment
+14.7
Away QB Adjustment
+14.6
Market Regression
-7.6
Final Difference
-37.9
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+14.6
Value
Ptile
12/02
-3.8
23
12/09
2.5
66
12/16
4.2
75
12/23
2.3
65
12/30
5.2
81
09/08
1.7
66
09/15
-0.7
48
09/22
8.0
93
09/29
1.7
66
10/06
6.4
88
K. Murray headshot

K. Murray

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+14.7
Value
Ptile
09/08
-3.7
27
09/15
0.7
57
09/22
-4.8
21
09/29
-1.6
42
10/06
6.4
88

Team Matchup Ranks

Falcons Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Falcons logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
13
28
Yards / Game
5
32
Passing Yards / Game
2
32
Rushing Yards / Game
30
23

EPA

EPA / Play
13
28
EPA / Pass
15
30
EPA / Rush
23
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
6
Interceptions / Game
21
30
Fumbles / Game
18
14
Turnover EPA / Game
10
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
30
4th Down Efficiency
4
1
RZ Efficiency
25
20
Cardinals Offense vs Falcons Defense
Cardinals logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
16
22
Yards / Game
20
20
Passing Yards / Game
22
1
Rushing Yards / Game
10
15

EPA

EPA / Play
17
21
EPA / Pass
19
24
EPA / Rush
5
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
6
Interceptions / Game
16
18
Fumbles / Game
4
14
Turnover EPA / Game
25
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
21
4th Down Efficiency
2
26
RZ Efficiency
29
19

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ATL logo

Falcons

4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/02
-10
L
L
U
12/09
-14
L
L
O
12/16
26
W
W
O
12/23
14
W
W
U
12/30
2
W
L
O
09/08
-16
L
L
U
09/15
4
W
W
U
09/22
-3
L
L
O
09/29
-14
L
L
U
10/06
-21
L
L
O
ARI logo

Cardinals

2-7-1
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/02
3
W
W
U
12/09
-14
L
L
U
12/16
-26
L
L
O
12/23
-22
L
L
U
12/30
-3
L
W
O
09/08
0
T
W
O
09/15
-6
L
W
U
09/22
-18
L
L
O
09/29
-17
L
L
U
10/06
3
W
W
O