ATLFalcons
1-4
33
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
034
ARICardinals
1-3
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
7
3
10
13
33
Cardinals
3
17
7
7
34
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
52.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
444
442
Total Plays
63
66
Yards / Play
7.0
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.32
+0.28
Passing Yards
341
--
Comp/Att
30/36(83%)
27/37(73%)
Yards / Pass
9.5
--
EPA / Pass
+0.54
+0.56
Rushing Yards
103
102
Rush Attempts
25
29
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
31
24
Passing 1st downs
20
16
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
55%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
80%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-15
--
Sack EPA
-4.38
--
Penalties
8
8
Penalty Yards
72
57
Penalty EPA
-6.63
-7.25
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model56.4%
Spread Pick
Cardinals+3.0
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-6
Home nfelo
1,360
Away nfelo
1,458
Home Field
+91.9
Base HFA
+53.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+18.8
Time Adj
+19.3
Net QB Adjustment
+0.0
Home QB Adjustment
+14.7
Away QB Adjustment
+14.6
Market Regression
-6.6
Final Difference
-44.5
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+14.6
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+14.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
28
Yards / Game
5
32
Passing Yards / Game
2
32
Rushing Yards / Game
30
23
EPA
EPA / Play
13
28
EPA / Pass
15
30
EPA / Rush
23
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
6
Interceptions / Game
21
30
Fumbles / Game
18
14
Turnover EPA / Game
10
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
30
4th Down Efficiency
4
1
RZ Efficiency
25
22
Cardinals Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
22
Yards / Game
22
20
Passing Yards / Game
22
1
Rushing Yards / Game
10
15
EPA
EPA / Play
17
21
EPA / Pass
19
24
EPA / Rush
5
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
6
Interceptions / Game
16
18
Fumbles / Game
4
14
Turnover EPA / Game
25
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
21
4th Down Efficiency
2
26
RZ Efficiency
30
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Cardinals
2-7-1
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U