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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. falcons @ cardinals week 8, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ATL logo
ATLFalcons
2-4
13
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
27
ARICardinals
3-4
ARI logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
3
3
0
7
13
Cardinals
0
21
3
3
27

Spread

ARI logo
-2.5

Total

UNDER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Falcons logo
Cardinals logo
Total Yards
292
348
Total Plays
79
51
Yards / Play
3.7
6.8
EPA / Play
-0.13
+0.05
Passing Yards
265
147
Comp/Att
34/61(56%)
13/18(72%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
8.2
EPA / Pass
-0.17
+0.09
Rushing Yards
27
201
Rush Attempts
14
30
Yards / Rush
1.9
6.7
EPA / Rush
-0.22
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
Falcons logo
Cardinals logo
1st Downs
20
17
Passing 1st downs
17
9
Rushing 1st downs
1
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
40%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
20
10
Red Zone %
33%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Falcons logo
Cardinals logo
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
4
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-10.60
-5.26
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-36
-25
Sack EPA
-6.14
-3.52
Penalties
10
8
Penalty Yards
55
52
Penalty EPA
-8.49
-7.58

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ARI logo
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.0

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model53.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+0
Home nfelo
1,415
Away nfelo
1,495
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-26.7
Home QB Adjustment
-2.2
Away QB Adjustment
+24.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
26.4
Model Spread
-2.0

Quarterbacks

M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+24.5
Value
Ptile
12/22
11.0
97
12/30
-0.2
49
01/13
4.8
80
01/20
9.1
94
09/08
1.7
62
09/15
8.9
94
09/22
2.1
65
09/29
5.9
86
10/07
9.1
94
10/20
6.1
87
C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-2.2
Value
Ptile
12/06
3.0
69
12/16
-0.8
44
12/23
-4.5
22
09/08
1.2
59
09/15
-1.8
41
09/22
-10.4
3
09/29
-3.8
26
10/06
-6.8
12
10/13
1.4
60
10/17
-5.7
15

Team Matchup Ranks

Falcons Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Falcons logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
20
6
Yards / Game
16
6
Passing Yards / Game
9
18
Rushing Yards / Game
32
1

EPA

EPA / Play
17
2
EPA / Pass
18
4
EPA / Rush
23
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
18
Interceptions / Game
19
5
Fumbles / Game
17
16
Turnover EPA / Game
19
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
11
4th Down Efficiency
21
8
RZ Efficiency
19
14
Cardinals Offense vs Falcons Defense
Cardinals logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
16
27
Yards / Game
14
26
Passing Yards / Game
3
11
Rushing Yards / Game
24
31

EPA

EPA / Play
21
32
EPA / Pass
19
30
EPA / Rush
26
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
11
Interceptions / Game
28
29
Fumbles / Game
13
5
Turnover EPA / Game
4
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
32
4th Down Efficiency
12
27
RZ Efficiency
24
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ATL logo

Falcons

4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/22
13
W
W
U
12/30
-5
L
L
U
01/13
2
W
L
O
01/20
-4
L
L
O
09/08
-6
L
L
U
09/15
7
W
W
O
09/22
-4
L
L
O
09/29
-7
L
L
O
10/07
-2
L
L
O
10/20
8
W
W
O
ARI logo

Cardinals

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/16
28
W
W
O
12/23
-15
L
L
O
12/30
-14
L
W
O
09/08
-3
L
W
O
09/15
4
W
W
U
09/22
-24
L
L
U
09/29
3
W
W
U
10/06
16
W
W
U
10/13
-12
L
L
O
10/17
-12
L
L
O