ATLFalcons
2-4
13
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
027
ARICardinals
3-4
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
3
3
0
7
13
Cardinals
0
21
3
3
27
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
292
348
Total Plays
79
51
Yards / Play
3.7
6.8
EPA / Play
-0.13
+0.05
Passing Yards
265
147
Comp/Att
34/61(56%)
13/18(72%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
8.2
EPA / Pass
-0.17
+0.09
Rushing Yards
27
201
Rush Attempts
14
30
Yards / Rush
1.9
6.7
EPA / Rush
-0.22
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
17
Passing 1st downs
17
9
Rushing 1st downs
1
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
40%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
20
10
Red Zone %
33%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
4
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-10.60
-5.26
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-36
-25
Sack EPA
-6.14
-3.52
Penalties
10
8
Penalty Yards
55
52
Penalty EPA
-8.49
-7.58
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model53.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-0
Home nfelo
1,418
Away nfelo
1,499
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-26.7
Home QB Adjustment
-2.2
Away QB Adjustment
+24.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
26.3
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+24.5
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-2.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
6
Yards / Game
16
6
Passing Yards / Game
9
18
Rushing Yards / Game
32
1
EPA
EPA / Play
17
2
EPA / Pass
18
4
EPA / Rush
23
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
18
Interceptions / Game
19
5
Fumbles / Game
17
16
Turnover EPA / Game
19
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
11
4th Down Efficiency
21
8
RZ Efficiency
19
14
Cardinals Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
27
Yards / Game
14
26
Passing Yards / Game
3
11
Rushing Yards / Game
24
31
EPA
EPA / Play
21
32
EPA / Pass
19
30
EPA / Rush
26
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
11
Interceptions / Game
28
29
Fumbles / Game
13
5
Turnover EPA / Game
4
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
32
4th Down Efficiency
12
27
RZ Efficiency
24
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U
Cardinals
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U