ATLFalcons
4-10
14
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
49°F
8 mph
17
KCChiefs
13-1
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
49°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
7
0
7
14
Chiefs
0
7
0
10
17
Spread
+11
Total
UNDER
54
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
367
395
Total Plays
62
66
Yards / Play
5.9
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.05
Passing Yards
277
--
Comp/Att
27/35(77%)
24/45(53%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
--
EPA / Pass
+0.14
-0.04
Rushing Yards
90
117
Rush Attempts
23
21
Yards / Rush
3.9
5.6
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
23
Passing 1st downs
17
14
Rushing 1st downs
4
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
50%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.03
-8.91
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-23
--
Sack EPA
-5.85
--
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
45
41
Penalty EPA
-5.42
-2.52
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-11.5
Current
-11.0
Model
-11.0
Win Probability
Market81.7%
Model81.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+289
Home nfelo
1,714
Away nfelo
1,458
Home Field
+5.1
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+28.2
Home QB Adjustment
+16.9
Away QB Adjustment
-11.2
Market Regression
-10.7
Final Difference
259.9
Model Spread
-11.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-11.2
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+16.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
10
Yards / Game
15
15
Passing Yards / Game
1
17
Rushing Yards / Game
28
19
EPA
EPA / Play
14
23
EPA / Pass
11
12
EPA / Rush
27
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
27
Interceptions / Game
11
6
Fumbles / Game
12
20
Turnover EPA / Game
26
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
13
4th Down Efficiency
15
29
RZ Efficiency
26
32
Chiefs Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
19
Yards / Game
1
29
Passing Yards / Game
8
30
Rushing Yards / Game
16
7
EPA
EPA / Play
2
19
EPA / Pass
2
26
EPA / Rush
9
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
11
Interceptions / Game
5
16
Fumbles / Game
11
13
Turnover EPA / Game
29
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
16
4th Down Efficiency
11
7
RZ Efficiency
19
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Chiefs
9-1
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U