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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. falcons @ chiefs week 16, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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ATL logo
ATLFalcons
4-10
14
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
49°F
8 mph
17
KCChiefs
13-1
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
49°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
7
0
7
14
Chiefs
0
7
0
10
17

Spread

ATL logo
+11

Total

UNDER
54

Game Statistics

General
Falcons logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
367
395
Total Plays
62
66
Yards / Play
5.9
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.05
Passing Yards
277
--
Comp/Att
27/35(77%)
24/45(53%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
--
EPA / Pass
+0.14
-0.04
Rushing Yards
90
117
Rush Attempts
23
21
Yards / Rush
3.9
5.6
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
Falcons logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
23
23
Passing 1st downs
17
14
Rushing 1st downs
4
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
50%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Falcons logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.03
-8.91
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-23
--
Sack EPA
-5.85
--
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
45
41
Penalty EPA
-5.42
-2.52

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-11.5
Current
-11.0
Model
-11.0

Win Probability

Market81.7%
Model81.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+290
Home nfelo
1,713
Away nfelo
1,457
Home Field
+5.1
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+28.2
Home QB Adjustment
+16.9
Away QB Adjustment
-11.2
Market Regression
-10.7
Final Difference
259.9
Model Spread
-11.0

Quarterbacks

M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-11.2
Value
Ptile
10/11
-5.9
11
10/18
10.4
96
10/25
3.3
69
10/29
1.0
51
11/08
3.6
71
11/22
-13.9
0
11/29
-3.7
21
12/06
-1.6
32
12/13
-6.5
9
12/20
6.9
88
P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+1.9
Team Elo Adj
+16.9
Value
Ptile
10/11
0.2
47
10/19
5.3
79
10/25
-3.6
21
11/01
13.8
99
11/08
8.6
94
11/22
6.6
87
11/29
13.3
99
12/06
4.5
76
12/13
-0.4
43
12/20
2.6
64

Team Matchup Ranks

Falcons Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Falcons logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
16
10
Yards / Game
15
15
Passing Yards / Game
1
17
Rushing Yards / Game
28
19

EPA

EPA / Play
14
23
EPA / Pass
11
12
EPA / Rush
27
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
27
Interceptions / Game
11
6
Fumbles / Game
12
20
Turnover EPA / Game
26
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
13
4th Down Efficiency
15
29
RZ Efficiency
26
32
Chiefs Offense vs Falcons Defense
Chiefs logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
6
19
Yards / Game
1
29
Passing Yards / Game
8
30
Rushing Yards / Game
16
7

EPA

EPA / Play
2
19
EPA / Pass
2
26
EPA / Rush
9
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
11
Interceptions / Game
5
16
Fumbles / Game
11
13
Turnover EPA / Game
29
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
16
4th Down Efficiency
11
7
RZ Efficiency
19
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ATL logo

Falcons

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/11
-7
L
L
U
10/18
17
W
W
O
10/25
-1
L
L
U
10/29
8
W
W
U
11/08
7
W
W
O
11/22
-15
L
L
U
11/29
37
W
W
U
12/06
-5
L
L
U
12/13
-3
L
L
U
12/20
-4
L
W
O
KC logo

Chiefs

9-1
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/11
-8
L
L
O
10/19
9
W
W
U
10/25
27
W
W
O
11/01
26
W
W
U
11/08
2
W
L
O
11/22
4
W
L
O
11/29
3
W
L
U
12/06
6
W
L
U
12/13
6
W
L
O
12/20
3
W
W
O