ATLFalcons
3-5
25
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
46°F
2 mph
31
INDColts
7-2
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
46°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Falcons
7
7
3
8
0
25
Colts
13
0
0
12
6
31
Spread
+6.5
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
292
519
Total Plays
61
75
Yards / Play
4.8
6.9
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.13
Passing Yards
152
196
Comp/Att
12/29(41%)
19/27(70%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
7.3
EPA / Pass
-0.28
-0.08
Rushing Yards
140
323
Rush Attempts
29
41
Yards / Rush
4.8
7.9
EPA / Rush
+0.14
+0.33
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
25
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
10
15
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
0%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
--
2
3rd Down Attempts
8
12
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.48
-5.84
Sacks
3
7
Sack Yards
-27
-59
Sack EPA
-8.54
-13.47
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
35
56
Penalty EPA
-0.54
-7.18
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model67.6%
Spread Pick
Falcons+6.5
Expected Value
+1.3%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+97
Home nfelo
1,540
Away nfelo
1,461
Home Field
--
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+18.8
Home QB Adjustment
+21.0
Away QB Adjustment
+2.2
Market Regression
+3.2
Final Difference
127.8
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
M. Penix
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+2.2
D. Jones
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+21.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
9
Yards / Game
16
19
Passing Yards / Game
22
30
Rushing Yards / Game
13
5
EPA
EPA / Play
27
11
EPA / Pass
23
7
EPA / Rush
16
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
18
Interceptions / Game
3
3
Fumbles / Game
29
11
Turnover EPA / Game
23
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
27
4th Down Efficiency
28
8
RZ Efficiency
12
24
Colts Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
19
Yards / Game
1
16
Passing Yards / Game
11
18
Rushing Yards / Game
3
28
EPA
EPA / Play
1
22
EPA / Pass
9
16
EPA / Rush
1
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
29
Interceptions / Game
16
11
Fumbles / Game
10
24
Turnover EPA / Game
17
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
16
4th Down Efficiency
2
21
RZ Efficiency
3
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Colts
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U