ATLFalcons
3-4
38
TBD
FedExField
55°F
5 mph
14
WASCommanders
5-2
TBD
FedExField
55°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
7
14
7
10
38
Commanders
0
7
7
0
14
Spread
+1.5
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
491
366
Total Plays
64
64
Yards / Play
7.7
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.44
-0.01
Passing Yards
337
287
Comp/Att
26/38(68%)
30/46(65%)
Yards / Pass
8.9
6.2
EPA / Pass
+0.50
-0.04
Rushing Yards
154
79
Rush Attempts
24
15
Yards / Rush
6.4
5.3
EPA / Rush
+0.23
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
20
Passing 1st downs
17
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
77%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
10
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.80
-3.38
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-13
-19
Sack EPA
-1.96
-4.98
Penalties
7
10
Penalty Yards
50
147
Penalty EPA
-5.92
-11.85
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-9
Home nfelo
1,512
Away nfelo
1,524
Home Field
+33.1
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-45.1
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-30.5
Home QB Adjustment
-7.7
Away QB Adjustment
+22.9
Market Regression
-2.0
Final Difference
15.8
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+22.9
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-7.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
15
Yards / Game
6
17
Passing Yards / Game
3
19
Rushing Yards / Game
27
16
EPA
EPA / Play
5
21
EPA / Pass
6
15
EPA / Rush
24
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
12
Interceptions / Game
3
11
Fumbles / Game
29
10
Turnover EPA / Game
20
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
29
4th Down Efficiency
19
2
RZ Efficiency
11
4
Commanders Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
25
Yards / Game
28
28
Passing Yards / Game
26
26
Rushing Yards / Game
17
25
EPA
EPA / Play
25
30
EPA / Pass
28
23
EPA / Rush
12
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
13
Interceptions / Game
23
11
Fumbles / Game
3
31
Turnover EPA / Game
16
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
31
4th Down Efficiency
17
28
RZ Efficiency
24
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Commanders
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
2-8
O/U