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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. falcons @ commanders week 9, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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ATL logo
ATLFalcons
3-4
38
TBD
FedExField
55°F
5 mph
14
WASCommanders
5-2
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
55°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
7
14
7
10
38
Commanders
0
7
7
0
14

Spread

ATL logo
+1.5

Total

OVER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Falcons logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
491
366
Total Plays
64
64
Yards / Play
7.7
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.44
-0.01
Passing Yards
337
287
Comp/Att
26/38(68%)
30/46(65%)
Yards / Pass
8.9
6.2
EPA / Pass
+0.50
-0.04
Rushing Yards
154
79
Rush Attempts
24
15
Yards / Rush
6.4
5.3
EPA / Rush
+0.23
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
Falcons logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
25
20
Passing 1st downs
17
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
77%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
10
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Falcons logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.80
-3.38
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-13
-19
Sack EPA
-1.96
-4.98
Penalties
7
10
Penalty Yards
50
147
Penalty EPA
-5.92
-11.85

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
WAS logo
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market53.2%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-8
Home nfelo
1,510
Away nfelo
1,521
Home Field
+33.5
Base HFA
+58.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-45.6
Surface Adj
+20.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-30.5
Home QB Adjustment
-7.7
Away QB Adjustment
+22.9
Market Regression
-2.4
Final Difference
16.1
Model Spread
-1.0

Quarterbacks

M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+22.9
Value
Ptile
12/31
4.1
81
01/06
-0.3
49
01/13
-1.5
42
09/06
-7.6
9
09/16
10.3
96
09/23
10.2
96
09/30
8.6
93
10/07
-1.6
35
10/14
8.6
93
10/22
5.1
80
A. Smith headshot

A. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-7.7
Value
Ptile
12/16
6.5
89
12/24
3.3
77
01/06
2.5
70
09/09
2.0
62
09/16
1.5
57
09/23
0.3
48
10/08
-2.8
29
10/14
-2.5
31
10/21
-1.2
38
10/28
0.2
48

Team Matchup Ranks

Falcons Offense vs Commanders Defense
Falcons logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
9
15
Yards / Game
6
17
Passing Yards / Game
3
19
Rushing Yards / Game
27
16

EPA

EPA / Play
5
21
EPA / Pass
6
15
EPA / Rush
24
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
12
Interceptions / Game
3
11
Fumbles / Game
29
10
Turnover EPA / Game
20
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
29
4th Down Efficiency
19
2
RZ Efficiency
11
4
Commanders Offense vs Falcons Defense
Commanders logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
29
25
Yards / Game
28
28
Passing Yards / Game
26
26
Rushing Yards / Game
17
25

EPA

EPA / Play
25
30
EPA / Pass
28
23
EPA / Rush
12
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
13
Interceptions / Game
23
11
Fumbles / Game
3
31
Turnover EPA / Game
16
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
31
4th Down Efficiency
17
28
RZ Efficiency
24
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ATL logo

Falcons

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/31
12
W
W
U
01/06
13
W
W
U
01/13
-5
L
L
U
09/06
-6
L
L
U
09/16
7
W
W
O
09/23
-6
L
L
O
09/30
-1
L
L
O
10/07
-24
L
L
O
10/14
5
W
W
O
10/22
3
W
L
U
WAS logo

Commanders

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/17
5
W
W
U
12/24
16
W
W
U
12/31
-8
L
L
U
09/09
18
W
W
U
09/16
-12
L
L
U
09/23
14
W
W
O
10/08
-24
L
L
O
10/14
6
W
W
U
10/21
3
W
W
U
10/28
7
W
W
U