ATLFalcons
8-7
24
TBD
FedExField
58°F
10 mph
30
WASCommanders
10-5
TBD
FedExField
58°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Falcons
7
10
0
7
0
24
Commanders
7
0
7
10
6
30
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
337
412
Total Plays
60
77
Yards / Play
5.6
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.13
+0.17
Passing Yards
211
196
Comp/Att
19/35(54%)
24/36(67%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
5.4
EPA / Pass
-0.02
+0.14
Rushing Yards
126
216
Rush Attempts
23
36
Yards / Rush
5.5
6.0
EPA / Rush
+0.20
+0.33
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
29
Passing 1st downs
11
13
Rushing 1st downs
8
14
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
20%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
13
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.76
-5.12
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-12
-31
Sack EPA
-3.84
-6.32
Penalties
4
13
Penalty Yards
25
108
Penalty EPA
-4.66
-14.43
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+91
Home nfelo
1,512
Away nfelo
1,546
Home Field
+52.7
Base HFA
+39.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+72.4
Home QB Adjustment
+39.9
Away QB Adjustment
-32.5
Market Regression
-16.5
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
M. Penix
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-32.5
Value
Ptile
J. Daniels
Proj. Value
+2.1
Team Elo Adj
+39.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
22
Yards / Game
6
17
Passing Yards / Game
7
20
Rushing Yards / Game
10
31
EPA
EPA / Play
15
29
EPA / Pass
15
20
EPA / Rush
11
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
13
Interceptions / Game
29
24
Fumbles / Game
6
6
Turnover EPA / Game
8
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
16
4th Down Efficiency
5
29
RZ Efficiency
20
27
Commanders Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
23
Yards / Game
5
22
Passing Yards / Game
18
3
Rushing Yards / Game
4
15
EPA
EPA / Play
4
23
EPA / Pass
6
28
EPA / Rush
2
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
25
Interceptions / Game
8
16
Fumbles / Game
9
27
Turnover EPA / Game
26
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
31
4th Down Efficiency
1
13
RZ Efficiency
6
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Commanders
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U