ATLFalcons
4-1
21
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
037
DALCowboys
3-2
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
7
0
7
7
21
Cowboys
0
17
7
7
31
Spread
-5
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
298
414
Total Plays
65
59
Yards / Play
4.6
7.0
EPA / Play
-0.10
+0.17
Passing Yards
174
299
Comp/Att
19/35(54%)
21/29(72%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
10.3
EPA / Pass
-0.11
+0.61
Rushing Yards
124
115
Rush Attempts
26
28
Yards / Rush
4.8
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.11
-0.34
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
18
Passing 1st downs
13
13
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
50%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-12.95
-5.04
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-24
-12
Sack EPA
-9.47
-3.12
Penalties
3
8
Penalty Yards
--
50
Penalty EPA
--
-3.89
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+110
Home nfelo
1,593
Away nfelo
1,563
Home Field
+91.6
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-10.6
Home QB Adjustment
+5.6
Away QB Adjustment
+16.2
Market Regression
+58.4
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+16.2
T. Romo
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+5.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
3
Yards / Game
16
10
Passing Yards / Game
29
23
Rushing Yards / Game
13
4
EPA
EPA / Play
15
8
EPA / Pass
11
17
EPA / Rush
13
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
13
Interceptions / Game
18
27
Fumbles / Game
8
5
Turnover EPA / Game
14
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
3
4th Down Efficiency
3
8
RZ Efficiency
13
26
Cowboys Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
13
Yards / Game
2
20
Passing Yards / Game
2
22
Rushing Yards / Game
6
9
EPA
EPA / Play
10
14
EPA / Pass
7
24
EPA / Rush
9
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
24
Interceptions / Game
3
16
Fumbles / Game
12
12
Turnover EPA / Game
29
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
32
4th Down Efficiency
31
13
RZ Efficiency
17
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
2-3-5
O/U
Cowboys
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
3-2-5
O/U