ATLFalcons
1-1
23
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
89°F
8 mph
27
MIADolphins
2-0
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
89°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
7
6
7
3
23
Dolphins
0
10
10
7
27
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
377
285
Total Plays
68
55
Yards / Play
5.5
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.13
+0.16
Passing Yards
--
195
Comp/Att
23/38(61%)
24/35(69%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.6
EPA / Pass
+0.27
-0.05
Rushing Yards
146
90
Rush Attempts
30
15
Yards / Rush
4.9
6.0
EPA / Rush
+0.07
+0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
16
Passing 1st downs
14
13
Rushing 1st downs
9
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
45%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
40%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-1.85
-3.24
Sacks
--
5
Sack Yards
--
-41
Sack EPA
--
-12.38
Penalties
7
2
Penalty Yards
59
13
Penalty EPA
-7.39
-2.73
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+28
Home nfelo
1,489
Away nfelo
1,521
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-23.5
Home QB Adjustment
-4.0
Away QB Adjustment
+19.5
Market Regression
+50.1
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+19.5
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-4.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
8
Yards / Game
16
20
Passing Yards / Game
9
16
Rushing Yards / Game
32
24
EPA
EPA / Play
17
14
EPA / Pass
18
11
EPA / Rush
23
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
1
Interceptions / Game
19
11
Fumbles / Game
17
30
Turnover EPA / Game
19
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
15
4th Down Efficiency
21
21
RZ Efficiency
19
5
Dolphins Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
27
Yards / Game
27
26
Passing Yards / Game
18
11
Rushing Yards / Game
26
31
EPA
EPA / Play
20
32
EPA / Pass
20
30
EPA / Rush
28
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
11
Interceptions / Game
20
29
Fumbles / Game
9
5
Turnover EPA / Game
21
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
32
4th Down Efficiency
31
27
RZ Efficiency
11
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Dolphins
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U