ATLFalcons
4-1
17
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
66°F
12 mph
31
PHIEagles
3-2
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
66°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
7
3
7
17
Eagles
14
7
7
3
31
Spread
-2
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
293
474
Total Plays
64
68
Yards / Play
4.6
7.0
EPA / Play
-0.11
+0.10
Passing Yards
228
320
Comp/Att
23/42(55%)
23/29(79%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
11.0
EPA / Pass
-0.02
+0.49
Rushing Yards
65
154
Rush Attempts
19
38
Yards / Rush
3.4
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
23
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
9
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
29%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
67%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.17
-5.16
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-22
-6
Sack EPA
-6.60
-1.69
Penalties
2
9
Penalty Yards
--
78
Penalty EPA
--
-13.21
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.2%
Model54.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+64
Home nfelo
1,554
Away nfelo
1,557
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-17.8
Home QB Adjustment
-15.0
Away QB Adjustment
+2.8
Market Regression
-36.1
Final Difference
29.3
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.8
K. Kolb
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-15.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
21
Yards / Game
19
12
Passing Yards / Game
26
23
Rushing Yards / Game
13
15
EPA
EPA / Play
7
24
EPA / Pass
7
23
EPA / Rush
16
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
4
Interceptions / Game
4
3
Fumbles / Game
15
9
Turnover EPA / Game
30
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
21
4th Down Efficiency
4
9
RZ Efficiency
6
32
Eagles Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
6
Yards / Game
2
19
Passing Yards / Game
3
29
Rushing Yards / Game
5
10
EPA
EPA / Play
5
10
EPA / Pass
11
16
EPA / Rush
1
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
28
Interceptions / Game
12
4
Fumbles / Game
20
27
Turnover EPA / Game
25
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
24
4th Down Efficiency
1
21
RZ Efficiency
15
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
2-8
O/U
Eagles
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U