ATLFalcons
5-4
31
TBD
Giants Stadium
53°F
10 mph
34
NYGGiants
5-4
TBD
Giants Stadium
53°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Falcons
0
7
10
14
0
31
Giants
3
14
7
7
3
34
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
352
456
Total Plays
78
66
Yards / Play
4.5
6.9
EPA / Play
+0.24
+0.27
Passing Yards
262
368
Comp/Att
26/46(57%)
25/39(64%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
9.4
EPA / Pass
+0.23
+0.56
Rushing Yards
90
88
Rush Attempts
30
26
Yards / Rush
3.0
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.20
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
26
Passing 1st downs
14
19
Rushing 1st downs
9
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
56%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
9
7
3rd Down Attempts
16
14
Red Zone %
67%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
6
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.55
-3.02
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-6
-16
Sack EPA
-5.50
-1.73
Penalties
3
8
Penalty Yards
--
64
Penalty EPA
--
-7.26
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+147
Home nfelo
1,606
Away nfelo
1,551
Home Field
+80.4
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+11.6
Home QB Adjustment
+5.2
Away QB Adjustment
-6.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-6.5
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+5.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
30
Yards / Game
16
13
Passing Yards / Game
29
13
Rushing Yards / Game
13
13
EPA
EPA / Play
15
30
EPA / Pass
11
23
EPA / Rush
13
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
20
Interceptions / Game
18
22
Fumbles / Game
8
12
Turnover EPA / Game
14
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
16
4th Down Efficiency
3
27
RZ Efficiency
13
32
Giants Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
13
Yards / Game
9
20
Passing Yards / Game
6
22
Rushing Yards / Game
17
9
EPA
EPA / Play
8
14
EPA / Pass
8
24
EPA / Rush
16
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
24
Interceptions / Game
10
16
Fumbles / Game
30
12
Turnover EPA / Game
12
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
32
4th Down Efficiency
9
13
RZ Efficiency
20
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Giants
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-3-2
O/U