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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. falcons @ giants week 11, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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ATL logo
ATLFalcons
5-4
31
TBD
Giants Stadium
53°F
10 mph
34
NYGGiants
5-4
NYG logo
TBD
Giants Stadium
53°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Falcons
0
7
10
14
0
31
Giants
3
14
7
7
3
34

Spread

ATL logo
+7

Total

OVER
46

Game Statistics

General
Falcons logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
352
456
Total Plays
78
66
Yards / Play
4.5
6.9
EPA / Play
+0.24
+0.27
Passing Yards
262
368
Comp/Att
26/46(57%)
25/39(64%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
9.4
EPA / Pass
+0.23
+0.56
Rushing Yards
90
88
Rush Attempts
30
26
Yards / Rush
3.0
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.20
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
Falcons logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
27
26
Passing 1st downs
14
19
Rushing 1st downs
9
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
56%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
9
7
3rd Down Attempts
16
14
Red Zone %
67%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
6
5
Negative Plays
Falcons logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.55
-3.02
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-6
-16
Sack EPA
-5.50
-1.73
Penalties
3
8
Penalty Yards
--
64
Penalty EPA
--
-7.26

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYG logo
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+147
Home nfelo
1,606
Away nfelo
1,551
Home Field
+80.4
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+11.6
Home QB Adjustment
+5.2
Away QB Adjustment
-6.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-6.5
Value
Ptile
01/03
-3.6
24
09/13
2.1
64
09/20
5.8
86
09/27
0.4
53
10/11
9.0
95
10/18
-0.8
45
10/25
-5.2
19
11/02
-5.8
15
11/08
-3.0
31
11/15
-2.2
37
E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+5.2
Value
Ptile
01/11
-3.7
24
09/13
1.5
59
09/20
8.6
94
09/27
2.8
68
10/04
3.3
72
10/11
4.2
78
10/18
-2.9
31
10/25
-7.7
8
11/01
-1.6
40
11/08
1.6
60

Team Matchup Ranks

Falcons Offense vs Giants Defense
Falcons logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
13
30
Yards / Game
16
13
Passing Yards / Game
29
13
Rushing Yards / Game
13
13

EPA

EPA / Play
15
30
EPA / Pass
11
23
EPA / Rush
13
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
20
Interceptions / Game
18
22
Fumbles / Game
8
12
Turnover EPA / Game
14
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
16
4th Down Efficiency
3
27
RZ Efficiency
13
32
Giants Offense vs Falcons Defense
Giants logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
8
13
Yards / Game
9
20
Passing Yards / Game
6
22
Rushing Yards / Game
17
9

EPA

EPA / Play
8
14
EPA / Pass
8
24
EPA / Rush
16
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
24
Interceptions / Game
10
16
Fumbles / Game
30
12
Turnover EPA / Game
12
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
32
4th Down Efficiency
9
13
RZ Efficiency
20
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ATL logo

Falcons

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/03
-6
L
L
P
09/13
12
W
W
U
09/20
8
W
W
O
09/27
-16
L
L
U
10/11
35
W
W
O
10/18
7
W
W
U
10/25
-16
L
L
O
11/02
-8
L
W
O
11/08
14
W
W
O
11/15
-9
L
L
O
NYG logo

Giants

5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-3-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/11
-12
L
L
P
09/13
6
W
P
O
09/20
2
W
W
O
09/27
24
W
W
U
10/04
11
W
W
P
10/11
37
W
W
O
10/18
-21
L
L
O
10/25
-7
L
L
U
11/01
-23
L
L
O
11/08
-1
L
L
U