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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. falcons @ jets week 8, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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ATL logo
ATLFalcons
3-3
25
TBD
MetLife Stadium
63°F
5 mph
20
NYJJets
3-4
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
63°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
7
6
3
9
25
Jets
7
10
0
3
20

Spread

NYJ logo
+6.5

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Falcons logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
386
279
Total Plays
63
58
Yards / Play
6.1
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.10
Passing Yards
246
236
Comp/Att
18/29(62%)
26/33(79%)
Yards / Pass
8.5
7.2
EPA / Pass
+0.34
+0.19
Rushing Yards
140
43
Rush Attempts
33
22
Yards / Rush
4.2
2.0
EPA / Rush
-0.37
-0.41
Downs & Conversions
Falcons logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
18
15
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
36%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
33%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
6
--
Negative Plays
Falcons logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-4.39
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-8
-21
Sack EPA
-0.55
-5.50
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
68
50
Penalty EPA
-7.25
-4.41

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market71.4%
Model70.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-118
Home nfelo
1,397
Away nfelo
1,582
Home Field
+57.4
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+8.9
Home QB Adjustment
+2.1
Away QB Adjustment
-6.7
Market Regression
-30.7
Final Difference
-150.6
Model Spread
+6.0

Quarterbacks

M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-6.7
Value
Ptile
01/01
9.2
95
01/14
6.0
86
01/22
15.1
100
02/05
1.1
57
09/10
3.2
75
09/17
-0.1
51
09/24
-2.1
38
10/01
-2.4
36
10/15
-1.1
44
10/22
3.7
79
J. McCown headshot

J. McCown

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+2.1
Value
Ptile
09/18
-3.2
25
10/30
-1.0
40
11/27
-3.6
22
09/10
-2.7
34
09/17
-0.6
48
09/24
1.2
61
10/01
-4.5
22
10/08
-2.4
36
10/15
-0.0
52
10/22
0.6
56

Team Matchup Ranks

Falcons Offense vs Jets Defense
Falcons logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
15
22
Yards / Game
11
26
Passing Yards / Game
10
5
Rushing Yards / Game
14
24

EPA

EPA / Play
7
22
EPA / Pass
7
22
EPA / Rush
20
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
7
Interceptions / Game
8
18
Fumbles / Game
13
8
Turnover EPA / Game
27
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
10
4th Down Efficiency
24
14
RZ Efficiency
26
21
Jets Offense vs Falcons Defense
Jets logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
23
6
Yards / Game
28
8
Passing Yards / Game
22
20
Rushing Yards / Game
19
9

EPA

EPA / Play
23
21
EPA / Pass
18
18
EPA / Rush
23
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
26
Interceptions / Game
13
30
Fumbles / Game
23
18
Turnover EPA / Game
20
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
17
4th Down Efficiency
8
29
RZ Efficiency
10
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ATL logo

Falcons

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/01
6
W
L
O
01/14
16
W
W
O
01/22
23
W
W
O
02/05
-6
L
L
O
09/10
6
W
L
U
09/17
11
W
W
O
09/24
4
W
W
O
10/01
-6
L
L
U
10/15
-3
L
L
U
10/22
-16
L
L
U
NYJ logo

Jets

4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/17
-21
L
L
O
12/24
-38
L
L
U
01/01
20
W
W
U
09/10
-9
L
L
U
09/17
-25
L
L
O
09/24
14
W
W
U
10/01
3
W
W
O
10/08
3
W
W
U
10/15
-7
L
W
U
10/22
-3
L
P
O