ATLFalcons
3-3
25
TBD
MetLife Stadium
63°F
5 mph
20
NYJJets
3-4
TBD
MetLife Stadium
63°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
7
6
3
9
25
Jets
7
10
0
3
20
Spread
+6.5
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
386
279
Total Plays
63
58
Yards / Play
6.1
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.10
Passing Yards
246
236
Comp/Att
18/29(62%)
26/33(79%)
Yards / Pass
8.5
7.2
EPA / Pass
+0.34
+0.19
Rushing Yards
140
43
Rush Attempts
33
22
Yards / Rush
4.2
2.0
EPA / Rush
-0.37
-0.41
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
15
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
36%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
33%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
6
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-4.39
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-8
-21
Sack EPA
-0.55
-5.50
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
68
50
Penalty EPA
-7.25
-4.41
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model70.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-117
Home nfelo
1,399
Away nfelo
1,581
Home Field
+56.6
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+8.9
Home QB Adjustment
+2.1
Away QB Adjustment
-6.7
Market Regression
-30.5
Final Difference
-150.3
Model Spread
+6.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-6.7
J. McCown
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+2.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
22
Yards / Game
11
26
Passing Yards / Game
10
5
Rushing Yards / Game
14
24
EPA
EPA / Play
7
22
EPA / Pass
7
22
EPA / Rush
20
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
7
Interceptions / Game
8
18
Fumbles / Game
13
8
Turnover EPA / Game
27
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
10
4th Down Efficiency
24
14
RZ Efficiency
26
21
Jets Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
6
Yards / Game
28
8
Passing Yards / Game
22
20
Rushing Yards / Game
19
9
EPA
EPA / Play
23
21
EPA / Pass
18
18
EPA / Rush
23
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
26
Interceptions / Game
13
30
Fumbles / Game
23
18
Turnover EPA / Game
20
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
17
4th Down Efficiency
8
29
RZ Efficiency
10
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Jets
4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U