ATLFalcons
6-7
10
TBD
Giants Stadium
29°F
18 mph
7
NYJJets
7-6
TBD
Giants Stadium
29°F
18 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
3
0
0
7
10
Jets
7
0
0
0
7
Spread
+5
Total
UNDER
36.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
238
314
Total Plays
62
67
Yards / Play
3.8
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.22
-0.28
Passing Yards
--
215
Comp/Att
16/34(47%)
18/32(56%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.7
EPA / Pass
+0.09
-0.18
Rushing Yards
86
99
Rush Attempts
28
33
Yards / Rush
3.1
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.23
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
17
Passing 1st downs
8
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
39%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
18
15
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-8.22
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-11
Sack EPA
--
-2.11
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
--
65
Penalty EPA
--
-5.27
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+94
Home nfelo
1,534
Away nfelo
1,494
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-9.0
Home QB Adjustment
-18.7
Away QB Adjustment
-9.7
Market Regression
+0.5
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-9.7
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-18.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
1
Yards / Game
16
1
Passing Yards / Game
29
2
Rushing Yards / Game
13
7
EPA
EPA / Play
15
1
EPA / Pass
11
1
EPA / Rush
13
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
26
Interceptions / Game
18
14
Fumbles / Game
8
18
Turnover EPA / Game
14
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
1
4th Down Efficiency
3
3
RZ Efficiency
13
5
Jets Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
13
Yards / Game
20
20
Passing Yards / Game
32
22
Rushing Yards / Game
1
9
EPA
EPA / Play
20
14
EPA / Pass
25
24
EPA / Rush
6
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
24
Interceptions / Game
27
16
Fumbles / Game
17
12
Turnover EPA / Game
21
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
32
4th Down Efficiency
1
13
RZ Efficiency
16
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Jets
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-5-1
O/U