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  1. nfelo...
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  3. falcons @ jets week 15, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ATL logo
ATLFalcons
6-7
10
TBD
Giants Stadium
29°F
18 mph
7
NYJJets
7-6
NYJ logo
TBD
Giants Stadium
29°F
18 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
3
0
0
7
10
Jets
7
0
0
0
7

Spread

ATL logo
+5

Total

UNDER
36.5

Game Statistics

General
Falcons logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
238
314
Total Plays
62
67
Yards / Play
3.8
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.22
-0.28
Passing Yards
--
215
Comp/Att
16/34(47%)
18/32(56%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.7
EPA / Pass
+0.09
-0.18
Rushing Yards
86
99
Rush Attempts
28
33
Yards / Rush
3.1
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.23
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
Falcons logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
12
17
Passing 1st downs
8
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
39%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
18
15
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Falcons logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-8.22
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-11
Sack EPA
--
-2.11
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
--
65
Penalty EPA
--
-5.27

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYJ logo
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+100
Home nfelo
1,535
Away nfelo
1,488
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-9.0
Home QB Adjustment
-18.7
Away QB Adjustment
-9.7
Market Regression
-7.1
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0

Quarterbacks

M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-9.7
Value
Ptile
09/20
5.8
86
09/27
0.4
53
10/11
9.0
95
10/18
-0.8
45
10/25
-5.2
19
11/02
-5.8
15
11/08
-3.0
31
11/15
-2.2
37
11/22
2.8
68
11/29
-5.6
16
M. Sanchez headshot

M. Sanchez

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-18.7
Value
Ptile
09/27
-0.6
46
10/04
-10.1
2
10/12
-0.4
47
10/18
-15.8
0
10/25
1.8
62
11/01
5.1
83
11/15
-3.7
25
11/22
-11.3
2
11/29
-2.5
34
12/03
-2.1
37

Team Matchup Ranks

Falcons Offense vs Jets Defense
Falcons logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
13
1
Yards / Game
16
1
Passing Yards / Game
29
2
Rushing Yards / Game
13
7

EPA

EPA / Play
15
1
EPA / Pass
11
1
EPA / Rush
13
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
26
Interceptions / Game
18
14
Fumbles / Game
8
18
Turnover EPA / Game
14
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
1
4th Down Efficiency
3
3
RZ Efficiency
13
5
Jets Offense vs Falcons Defense
Jets logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
17
13
Yards / Game
20
20
Passing Yards / Game
32
22
Rushing Yards / Game
1
9

EPA

EPA / Play
20
14
EPA / Pass
25
24
EPA / Rush
6
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
24
Interceptions / Game
27
16
Fumbles / Game
17
12
Turnover EPA / Game
21
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
32
4th Down Efficiency
1
13
RZ Efficiency
16
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ATL logo

Falcons

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/11
35
W
W
O
10/18
7
W
W
U
10/25
-16
L
L
O
11/02
-8
L
W
O
11/08
14
W
W
O
11/15
-9
L
L
O
11/22
-3
L
W
O
11/29
3
W
L
U
12/06
-27
L
L
U
12/13
-3
L
W
U
NYJ logo

Jets

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/04
-14
L
L
U
10/12
-4
L
L
O
10/18
-3
L
L
U
10/25
38
W
W
O
11/01
-5
L
L
O
11/15
-2
L
L
O
11/22
-17
L
L
P
11/29
11
W
W
U
12/03
6
W
W
U
12/13
23
W
W
U