ATLFalcons
2-0
30
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
026
DETLions
2-0
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
7
13
3
7
30
Lions
0
7
10
3
20
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
428
324
Total Plays
65
66
Yards / Play
6.6
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.01
-0.11
Passing Yards
277
253
Comp/Att
24/35(69%)
25/45(56%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
5.6
EPA / Pass
-0.16
-0.11
Rushing Yards
151
71
Rush Attempts
28
19
Yards / Rush
5.4
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.18
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
21
Passing 1st downs
15
15
Rushing 1st downs
9
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
44%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
9
13
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-20.25
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-17
-11
Sack EPA
-3.57
-2.86
Penalties
8
9
Penalty Yards
68
98
Penalty EPA
-9.04
-10.33
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-60
Home nfelo
1,492
Away nfelo
1,606
Home Field
+57.4
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-4.2
Home QB Adjustment
+6.3
Away QB Adjustment
+10.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+10.5
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+6.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
21
Yards / Game
11
27
Passing Yards / Game
10
16
Rushing Yards / Game
14
19
EPA
EPA / Play
7
4
EPA / Pass
7
11
EPA / Rush
20
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
7
Interceptions / Game
8
3
Fumbles / Game
13
4
Turnover EPA / Game
27
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
15
4th Down Efficiency
24
21
RZ Efficiency
26
28
Lions Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
6
Yards / Game
13
8
Passing Yards / Game
4
20
Rushing Yards / Game
32
9
EPA
EPA / Play
20
21
EPA / Pass
12
18
EPA / Rush
32
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
26
Interceptions / Game
10
30
Fumbles / Game
28
18
Turnover EPA / Game
9
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
17
4th Down Efficiency
31
29
RZ Efficiency
14
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
9-1
O/U
Lions
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U