ATLFalcons
2-0
6
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
020
DETLions
1-1
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
3
0
3
6
Lions
3
10
0
7
20
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
183
358
Total Plays
65
64
Yards / Play
2.8
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.37
-0.13
Passing Yards
139
--
Comp/Att
21/38(55%)
22/33(67%)
Yards / Pass
3.7
--
EPA / Pass
-0.39
+0.08
Rushing Yards
44
115
Rush Attempts
20
31
Yards / Rush
2.2
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.36
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
18
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
29%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
0%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.25
-2.78
Sacks
7
--
Sack Yards
-62
--
Sack EPA
-12.42
--
Penalties
4
10
Penalty Yards
24
119
Penalty EPA
-4.48
-10.94
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+62
Home nfelo
1,525
Away nfelo
1,521
Home Field
+43.0
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+15.1
Home QB Adjustment
+6.7
Away QB Adjustment
-8.4
Market Regression
-50.6
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
D. Ridder
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-8.4
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+6.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
25
Yards / Game
17
23
Passing Yards / Game
27
18
Rushing Yards / Game
8
2
EPA
EPA / Play
27
23
EPA / Pass
23
28
EPA / Rush
25
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
27
Interceptions / Game
27
9
Fumbles / Game
22
29
Turnover EPA / Game
6
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
13
4th Down Efficiency
29
27
RZ Efficiency
30
30
Lions Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
17
Yards / Game
2
10
Passing Yards / Game
3
10
Rushing Yards / Game
6
19
EPA
EPA / Play
8
12
EPA / Pass
5
14
EPA / Rush
11
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
20
Interceptions / Game
8
29
Fumbles / Game
19
21
Turnover EPA / Game
14
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
3
4th Down Efficiency
13
12
RZ Efficiency
2
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Lions
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U