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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. falcons @ lions week 3, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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ATL logo
ATLFalcons
2-0
6
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
20
DETLions
1-1
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
3
0
3
6
Lions
3
10
0
7
20

Spread

DET logo
-3

Total

UNDER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Falcons logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
183
358
Total Plays
65
64
Yards / Play
2.8
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.37
-0.13
Passing Yards
139
--
Comp/Att
21/38(55%)
22/33(67%)
Yards / Pass
3.7
--
EPA / Pass
-0.39
+0.08
Rushing Yards
44
115
Rush Attempts
20
31
Yards / Rush
2.2
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.36
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
Falcons logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
16
18
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
29%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
0%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Falcons logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.25
-2.78
Sacks
7
--
Sack Yards
-62
--
Sack EPA
-12.42
--
Penalties
4
10
Penalty Yards
24
119
Penalty EPA
-4.48
-10.94

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+64
Home nfelo
1,528
Away nfelo
1,522
Home Field
+43.0
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+15.1
Home QB Adjustment
+6.8
Away QB Adjustment
-8.2
Market Regression
-50.6
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

D. Ridder headshot

D. Ridder

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-8.2
Value
Ptile
12/18
-6.7
10
12/24
-1.3
44
01/01
-2.2
35
01/08
1.5
63
09/10
-4.6
22
09/17
2.5
67
J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.6
Team Elo Adj
+6.8
Value
Ptile
11/20
-1.8
38
11/24
2.5
73
12/04
5.1
85
12/11
8.2
94
12/18
2.5
73
12/24
6.0
89
01/01
4.9
84
01/08
0.9
58
09/07
-0.1
48
09/17
6.1
87

Team Matchup Ranks

Falcons Offense vs Lions Defense
Falcons logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
26
25
Yards / Game
17
23
Passing Yards / Game
27
18
Rushing Yards / Game
8
2

EPA

EPA / Play
27
23
EPA / Pass
23
28
EPA / Rush
25
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
27
Interceptions / Game
27
9
Fumbles / Game
22
29
Turnover EPA / Game
6
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
13
4th Down Efficiency
29
27
RZ Efficiency
30
30
Lions Offense vs Falcons Defense
Lions logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
5
17
Yards / Game
2
10
Passing Yards / Game
3
10
Rushing Yards / Game
6
19

EPA

EPA / Play
8
12
EPA / Pass
5
14
EPA / Rush
11
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
20
Interceptions / Game
8
29
Fumbles / Game
19
21
Turnover EPA / Game
14
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
3
4th Down Efficiency
13
12
RZ Efficiency
2
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ATL logo

Falcons

5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/10
-10
L
L
U
11/20
3
W
P
O
11/27
-6
L
L
U
12/04
-3
L
L
U
12/18
-3
L
W
U
12/24
-8
L
L
U
01/01
1
W
L
U
01/08
13
W
W
O
09/10
14
W
W
U
09/17
1
W
L
O
DET logo

Lions

7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/20
13
W
W
O
11/24
-3
L
W
U
12/04
26
W
W
O
12/11
11
W
W
O
12/18
3
W
W
U
12/24
-14
L
L
O
01/01
31
W
W
U
01/08
4
W
W
U
09/07
1
W
W
U
09/17
-6
L
L
O