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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. falcons @ lions week 7, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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ATL logo
ATLFalcons
3-3
23
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
16
DETLions
5-1
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
10
7
3
3
23
Lions
3
3
10
0
16

Spread

ATL logo
+4.5

Total

UNDER
47

Game Statistics

General
Falcons logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
328
263
Total Plays
69
55
Yards / Play
4.8
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.08
-0.30
Passing Yards
199
159
Comp/Att
20/35(57%)
15/32(47%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
5.0
EPA / Pass
-0.11
-0.23
Rushing Yards
129
104
Rush Attempts
31
20
Yards / Rush
4.2
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
Falcons logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
22
13
Passing 1st downs
11
8
Rushing 1st downs
4
4
Penalty 1st downs
7
1
3rd Down %
41%
8%
3rd Down Conversions
7
1
3rd Down Attempts
17
12
Red Zone %
40%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Falcons logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-8.45
-5.13
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-19
-24
Sack EPA
-3.13
-3.98
Penalties
11
10
Penalty Yards
80
84
Penalty EPA
-6.39
-12.46

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+95
Home nfelo
1,550
Away nfelo
1,531
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+12.8
Home QB Adjustment
+12.6
Away QB Adjustment
-0.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5

Quarterbacks

M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-0.2
Value
Ptile
12/19
-0.4
46
12/27
-0.1
48
01/02
5.2
84
01/15
-5.1
18
09/11
-2.5
34
09/18
-1.8
37
09/25
-1.3
42
10/02
6.1
86
10/09
-4.2
24
10/16
2.0
66
J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+1.9
Team Elo Adj
+12.6
Value
Ptile
12/06
-8.9
5
09/12
-3.2
28
10/31
3.0
69
11/07
4.7
80
09/11
7.8
93
09/18
6.6
89
09/25
4.2
77
10/02
-0.1
51
10/10
1.2
62
10/16
-0.2
50

Team Matchup Ranks

Falcons Offense vs Lions Defense
Falcons logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
10
24
Yards / Game
12
28
Passing Yards / Game
24
31
Rushing Yards / Game
18
25

EPA

EPA / Play
13
13
EPA / Pass
9
6
EPA / Rush
23
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
17
Interceptions / Game
8
8
Fumbles / Game
9
3
Turnover EPA / Game
28
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
7
4th Down Efficiency
30
20
RZ Efficiency
13
14
Lions Offense vs Falcons Defense
Lions logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
4
17
Yards / Game
4
13
Passing Yards / Game
5
8
Rushing Yards / Game
30
7

EPA

EPA / Play
9
14
EPA / Pass
7
16
EPA / Rush
14
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
28
Interceptions / Game
20
11
Fumbles / Game
9
17
Turnover EPA / Game
16
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
30
4th Down Efficiency
6
27
RZ Efficiency
3
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ATL logo

Falcons

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/19
16
W
W
O
12/27
-3
L
L
U
01/02
21
W
W
P
01/15
-27
L
L
O
09/11
-18
L
L
O
09/18
4
W
W
O
09/25
-3
L
L
U
10/02
2
W
L
O
10/09
-11
L
L
U
10/16
14
W
W
U
DET logo

Lions

9-1
SU
8-1-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/12
4
W
W
U
12/19
3
W
W
P
12/26
7
W
W
O
01/02
7
W
W
U
09/11
7
W
W
O
09/18
45
W
W
O
09/25
3
W
P
O
10/02
4
W
W
O
10/10
11
W
W
U
10/16
-6
L
L
U