ATLFalcons
3-3
23
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
016
DETLions
5-1
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
10
7
3
3
23
Lions
3
3
10
0
16
Spread
+4.5
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
328
263
Total Plays
69
55
Yards / Play
4.8
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.08
-0.30
Passing Yards
199
159
Comp/Att
20/35(57%)
15/32(47%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
5.0
EPA / Pass
-0.11
-0.23
Rushing Yards
129
104
Rush Attempts
31
20
Yards / Rush
4.2
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
13
Passing 1st downs
11
8
Rushing 1st downs
4
4
Penalty 1st downs
7
1
3rd Down %
41%
8%
3rd Down Conversions
7
1
3rd Down Attempts
17
12
Red Zone %
40%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-8.45
-5.13
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-19
-24
Sack EPA
-3.13
-3.98
Penalties
11
10
Penalty Yards
80
84
Penalty EPA
-6.39
-12.46
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+93
Home nfelo
1,548
Away nfelo
1,530
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+12.8
Home QB Adjustment
+12.6
Away QB Adjustment
-0.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-0.2
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+12.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
24
Yards / Game
12
28
Passing Yards / Game
24
31
Rushing Yards / Game
18
25
EPA
EPA / Play
13
13
EPA / Pass
9
6
EPA / Rush
23
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
17
Interceptions / Game
8
8
Fumbles / Game
9
3
Turnover EPA / Game
28
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
7
4th Down Efficiency
30
20
RZ Efficiency
13
14
Lions Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
17
Yards / Game
4
13
Passing Yards / Game
5
8
Rushing Yards / Game
30
7
EPA
EPA / Play
9
14
EPA / Pass
7
16
EPA / Rush
14
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
28
Interceptions / Game
20
11
Fumbles / Game
9
17
Turnover EPA / Game
16
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
30
4th Down Efficiency
6
27
RZ Efficiency
3
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Lions
9-1
SU
8-1-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U