ATLFalcons
12-2
31
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
018
DETLions
4-10
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
7
14
0
10
31
Lions
3
3
7
3
16
Spread
-4
Total
UNDER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
344
522
Total Plays
55
78
Yards / Play
6.3
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.24
-0.06
Passing Yards
271
--
Comp/Att
25/32(78%)
37/56(66%)
Yards / Pass
8.5
--
EPA / Pass
+0.56
+0.07
Rushing Yards
73
79
Rush Attempts
22
22
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.40
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
25
Passing 1st downs
15
21
Rushing 1st downs
4
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
55%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
67%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-13.44
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-8
--
Sack EPA
-1.78
--
Penalties
3
2
Penalty Yards
20
20
Penalty EPA
-2.44
-0.50
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-56
Home nfelo
1,495
Away nfelo
1,591
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-22.2
Home QB Adjustment
-10.3
Away QB Adjustment
+11.9
Market Regression
-40.8
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+11.9
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-10.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
27
Yards / Game
6
12
Passing Yards / Game
2
9
Rushing Yards / Game
27
16
EPA
EPA / Play
9
21
EPA / Pass
3
20
EPA / Rush
30
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
24
Interceptions / Game
17
23
Fumbles / Game
2
22
Turnover EPA / Game
23
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
8
4th Down Efficiency
32
32
RZ Efficiency
9
13
Lions Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
6
Yards / Game
3
24
Passing Yards / Game
4
23
Rushing Yards / Game
23
19
EPA
EPA / Play
21
10
EPA / Pass
16
12
EPA / Rush
21
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
28
Interceptions / Game
22
6
Fumbles / Game
26
10
Turnover EPA / Game
2
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
26
4th Down Efficiency
24
9
RZ Efficiency
7
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
8-2
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Lions
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U