ATLFalcons
3-2
38
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
79°F
9 mph
20
CARPanthers
1-4
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
79°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
7
15
6
10
38
Panthers
7
10
3
0
20
Spread
-6
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
425
335
Total Plays
69
62
Yards / Play
6.2
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.24
-0.12
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
19/30(63%)
26/38(68%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.23
-0.13
Rushing Yards
200
114
Rush Attempts
39
24
Yards / Rush
5.1
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.17
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
21
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
13
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
50%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
8
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.62
-10.32
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
5
10
Penalty Yards
45
74
Penalty EPA
-4.06
-12.20
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
Panthers+6.0
Expected Value
+0.2%
Cover Probability
50.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-88
Home nfelo
1,330
Away nfelo
1,492
Home Field
+41.0
Base HFA
+45.6
Divisional Adj
-20.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+33.5
Home QB Adjustment
+53.2
Away QB Adjustment
+19.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-123.7
Model Spread
+4.5
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+19.7
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
+53.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
32
Yards / Game
6
32
Passing Yards / Game
7
21
Rushing Yards / Game
10
32
EPA
EPA / Play
15
32
EPA / Pass
15
31
EPA / Rush
11
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
21
Interceptions / Game
29
25
Fumbles / Game
6
19
Turnover EPA / Game
8
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
32
4th Down Efficiency
5
20
RZ Efficiency
20
29
Panthers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
23
Yards / Game
29
22
Passing Yards / Game
30
3
Rushing Yards / Game
16
15
EPA
EPA / Play
24
23
EPA / Pass
28
28
EPA / Rush
9
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
25
Interceptions / Game
22
16
Fumbles / Game
13
27
Turnover EPA / Game
13
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
31
4th Down Efficiency
26
13
RZ Efficiency
7
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Panthers
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U