ATLFalcons
4-3
17
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
61°F
4 mph
20
CARPanthers
5-3
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
61°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
10
0
0
7
17
Panthers
0
14
6
0
20
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
355
330
Total Plays
58
63
Yards / Play
6.1
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.08
-0.06
Passing Yards
302
129
Comp/Att
24/38(63%)
13/24(54%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
5.4
EPA / Pass
-0.04
-0.11
Rushing Yards
53
201
Rush Attempts
18
38
Yards / Rush
2.9
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.32
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
20
Passing 1st downs
13
6
Rushing 1st downs
3
12
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
33%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-5.74
-9.56
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-11
-8
Sack EPA
-3.59
-1.42
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
70
29
Penalty EPA
-11.40
-4.06
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
+2.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model53.4%
Spread Pick
Panthers+3.0
Expected Value
+8.4%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+13
Home nfelo
1,549
Away nfelo
1,588
Home Field
+50.5
Base HFA
+56.3
Divisional Adj
-25.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+1.2
Home QB Adjustment
-3.7
Away QB Adjustment
-4.9
Market Regression
-52.8
Final Difference
-23.5
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-4.9
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-3.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
13
Yards / Game
11
10
Passing Yards / Game
10
27
Rushing Yards / Game
14
3
EPA
EPA / Play
7
12
EPA / Pass
7
17
EPA / Rush
20
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
18
Interceptions / Game
8
24
Fumbles / Game
13
7
Turnover EPA / Game
27
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
12
4th Down Efficiency
24
7
RZ Efficiency
26
12
Panthers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
6
Yards / Game
16
8
Passing Yards / Game
25
20
Rushing Yards / Game
4
9
EPA
EPA / Play
12
21
EPA / Pass
15
18
EPA / Rush
15
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
26
Interceptions / Game
24
30
Fumbles / Game
3
18
Turnover EPA / Game
14
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
17
4th Down Efficiency
17
29
RZ Efficiency
21
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Panthers
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U