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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. falcons @ panthers week 10, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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ATL logo
ATLFalcons
5-3
19
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
73°F
3 mph
28
CARPanthers
3-5
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
73°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
3
7
3
6
19
Panthers
7
14
0
7
28

Spread

CAR logo
+1.5

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Falcons logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
400
380
Total Plays
71
58
Yards / Play
5.6
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.18
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
22/42(52%)
15/24(63%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.04
+0.58
Rushing Yards
176
185
Rush Attempts
29
34
Yards / Rush
6.1
5.4
EPA / Rush
+0.14
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
Falcons logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
12
9
Rushing 1st downs
7
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
43%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
40%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Falcons logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.28
--
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
26
48
Penalty EPA
-5.76
-7.23

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market53.6%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-10
Home nfelo
1,502
Away nfelo
1,558
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-9.6
Home QB Adjustment
-14.0
Away QB Adjustment
-4.5
Market Regression
-9.1
Final Difference
-25.1
Model Spread
+1.5

Quarterbacks

M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-4.5
Value
Ptile
12/28
-5.9
11
01/03
-3.6
24
09/13
2.1
64
09/20
5.8
86
09/27
0.4
53
10/11
9.0
95
10/18
-0.8
45
10/25
-5.2
19
11/02
-5.8
15
11/08
-3.0
31
J. Delhomme headshot

J. Delhomme

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-14.0
Value
Ptile
12/28
3.3
74
01/10
-11.8
1
09/13
-13.7
0
09/20
2.0
63
09/28
-2.7
33
10/11
-2.7
34
10/18
-7.0
11
10/25
-2.3
36
11/01
-2.2
37
11/08
-1.3
41

Team Matchup Ranks

Falcons Offense vs Panthers Defense
Falcons logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
13
9
Yards / Game
16
8
Passing Yards / Game
29
3
Rushing Yards / Game
13
23

EPA

EPA / Play
15
6
EPA / Pass
11
4
EPA / Rush
13
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
18
Interceptions / Game
18
6
Fumbles / Game
8
2
Turnover EPA / Game
14
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
6
4th Down Efficiency
3
21
RZ Efficiency
13
12
Panthers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Panthers logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
21
13
Yards / Game
19
20
Passing Yards / Game
22
22
Rushing Yards / Game
3
9

EPA

EPA / Play
22
14
EPA / Pass
22
24
EPA / Rush
8
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
24
Interceptions / Game
28
16
Fumbles / Game
13
12
Turnover EPA / Game
9
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
32
4th Down Efficiency
21
13
RZ Efficiency
18
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ATL logo

Falcons

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-3-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/28
4
W
L
P
01/03
-6
L
L
P
09/13
12
W
W
U
09/20
8
W
W
O
09/27
-16
L
L
U
10/11
35
W
W
O
10/18
7
W
W
U
10/25
-16
L
L
O
11/02
-8
L
W
O
11/08
14
W
W
O
CAR logo

Panthers

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-4-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/28
2
W
W
P
01/10
-20
L
L
P
09/13
-28
L
L
O
09/20
-8
L
L
O
09/28
-14
L
L
U
10/11
3
W
L
U
10/18
7
W
W
O
10/25
-11
L
L
U
11/01
13
W
W
O
11/08
-10
L
W
U