ATLFalcons
5-3
19
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
73°F
3 mph
28
CARPanthers
3-5
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
73°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
3
7
3
6
19
Panthers
7
14
0
7
28
Spread
+1.5
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
400
380
Total Plays
71
58
Yards / Play
5.6
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.18
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
22/42(52%)
15/24(63%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.04
+0.58
Rushing Yards
176
185
Rush Attempts
29
34
Yards / Rush
6.1
5.4
EPA / Rush
+0.14
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
12
9
Rushing 1st downs
7
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
43%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
40%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.28
--
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
26
48
Penalty EPA
-5.76
-7.23
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-9
Home nfelo
1,503
Away nfelo
1,559
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-9.6
Home QB Adjustment
-14.0
Away QB Adjustment
-4.5
Market Regression
-9.1
Final Difference
-25.1
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-4.5
J. Delhomme
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-14.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
9
Yards / Game
16
8
Passing Yards / Game
29
3
Rushing Yards / Game
13
23
EPA
EPA / Play
15
6
EPA / Pass
11
4
EPA / Rush
13
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
18
Interceptions / Game
18
6
Fumbles / Game
8
2
Turnover EPA / Game
14
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
6
4th Down Efficiency
3
21
RZ Efficiency
13
12
Panthers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
13
Yards / Game
19
20
Passing Yards / Game
22
22
Rushing Yards / Game
3
9
EPA
EPA / Play
22
14
EPA / Pass
22
24
EPA / Rush
8
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
24
Interceptions / Game
28
16
Fumbles / Game
13
12
Turnover EPA / Game
9
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
32
4th Down Efficiency
21
13
RZ Efficiency
18
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-3-2
O/U
Panthers
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-4-2
O/U