ATLFalcons
3-6
19
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
48°F
3 mph
17
CARPanthers
3-6
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
48°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
6
10
3
19
Panthers
0
3
0
14
17
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
346
391
Total Plays
74
64
Yards / Play
4.7
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.05
-0.12
Passing Yards
260
285
Comp/Att
31/45(69%)
23/37(62%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
7.7
EPA / Pass
+0.07
-0.14
Rushing Yards
86
106
Rush Attempts
27
25
Yards / Rush
3.2
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.29
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
22
Passing 1st downs
18
15
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
33%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.28
-9.24
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-8
-7
Sack EPA
-2.59
-2.38
Penalties
5
1
Penalty Yards
58
--
Penalty EPA
-4.65
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-30
Home nfelo
1,361
Away nfelo
1,480
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+33.3
Home QB Adjustment
+32.2
Away QB Adjustment
-1.0
Market Regression
-40.0
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-1.0
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+32.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
20
Yards / Game
7
6
Passing Yards / Game
2
19
Rushing Yards / Game
24
11
EPA
EPA / Play
11
16
EPA / Pass
11
14
EPA / Rush
22
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
14
Interceptions / Game
17
15
Fumbles / Game
15
4
Turnover EPA / Game
14
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
21
4th Down Efficiency
14
14
RZ Efficiency
6
29
Panthers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
27
Yards / Game
15
32
Passing Yards / Game
20
8
Rushing Yards / Game
7
21
EPA
EPA / Play
17
28
EPA / Pass
19
29
EPA / Rush
11
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
20
Interceptions / Game
14
13
Fumbles / Game
14
16
Turnover EPA / Game
12
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
32
4th Down Efficiency
10
19
RZ Efficiency
25
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Panthers
3-6-1
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U