ATLFalcons
10-2
31
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
44°F
14 mph
10
CARPanthers
1-11
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
44°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
14
3
7
7
31
Panthers
0
0
7
3
10
Spread
-7
Total
PUSH
41
P
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
327
288
Total Plays
73
58
Yards / Play
4.5
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.13
-0.26
Passing Yards
200
76
Comp/Att
20/34(59%)
15/25(60%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
3.0
EPA / Pass
+0.10
-0.71
Rushing Yards
127
212
Rush Attempts
36
28
Yards / Rush
3.5
7.6
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
13
Passing 1st downs
12
6
Rushing 1st downs
11
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
53%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
9
3
3rd Down Attempts
17
13
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-0.28
-9.50
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-27
-31
Sack EPA
-5.17
-7.78
Penalties
1
6
Penalty Yards
--
50
Penalty EPA
--
-4.43
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model77.8%
Spread Pick
Falcons-7.0
Expected Value
+9.7%
Cover Probability
53.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-257
Home nfelo
1,281
Away nfelo
1,571
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-23.1
Home QB Adjustment
-0.1
Away QB Adjustment
+22.9
Market Regression
+5.2
Final Difference
-218.0
Model Spread
+8.5
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+22.9
J. Clausen
Proj. Value
-3.0
Team Elo Adj
-0.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
25
Yards / Game
19
17
Passing Yards / Game
26
21
Rushing Yards / Game
13
23
EPA
EPA / Play
7
17
EPA / Pass
7
12
EPA / Rush
16
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
2
Interceptions / Game
4
11
Fumbles / Game
15
10
Turnover EPA / Game
30
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
14
4th Down Efficiency
4
12
RZ Efficiency
6
10
Panthers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
6
Yards / Game
32
19
Passing Yards / Game
30
29
Rushing Yards / Game
12
10
EPA
EPA / Play
32
10
EPA / Pass
32
16
EPA / Rush
32
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
28
Interceptions / Game
27
4
Fumbles / Game
30
27
Turnover EPA / Game
4
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
24
4th Down Efficiency
18
21
RZ Efficiency
32
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Panthers
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U