ATLFalcons
7-5
31
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
43°F
10 mph
23
CARPanthers
4-8
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
43°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
7
0
10
14
31
Panthers
7
14
0
0
21
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
394
416
Total Plays
69
64
Yards / Play
5.7
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.13
-0.05
Passing Yards
308
259
Comp/Att
22/38(58%)
19/39(49%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.47
-0.15
Rushing Yards
86
157
Rush Attempts
28
23
Yards / Rush
3.1
6.8
EPA / Rush
-0.17
+0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
19
Passing 1st downs
14
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
47%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
17
13
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-10.38
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-12
-17
Sack EPA
-2.82
-3.52
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
50
50
Penalty EPA
-4.98
-3.08
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-42
Home nfelo
1,436
Away nfelo
1,562
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+27.4
Home QB Adjustment
+35.8
Away QB Adjustment
+8.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+8.4
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+35.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
27
Yards / Game
12
27
Passing Yards / Game
24
25
Rushing Yards / Game
18
24
EPA
EPA / Play
13
31
EPA / Pass
9
32
EPA / Rush
23
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
18
Interceptions / Game
8
20
Fumbles / Game
9
12
Turnover EPA / Game
28
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
26
4th Down Efficiency
30
7
RZ Efficiency
13
28
Panthers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
17
Yards / Game
7
13
Passing Yards / Game
12
8
Rushing Yards / Game
3
7
EPA
EPA / Play
6
14
EPA / Pass
11
16
EPA / Rush
1
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
28
Interceptions / Game
21
11
Fumbles / Game
2
17
Turnover EPA / Game
18
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
30
4th Down Efficiency
4
27
RZ Efficiency
7
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
6-4
SU
3-5-2
ATS
1-9
O/U
Panthers
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U