ATLFalcons
11-1
20
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
70°F
4 mph
30
CARPanthers
3-9
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
70°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
0
7
13
20
Panthers
7
9
7
7
30
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
362
475
Total Plays
63
68
Yards / Play
5.7
7.0
EPA / Play
+0.20
+0.33
Passing Yards
327
280
Comp/Att
34/50(68%)
23/35(66%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
8.0
EPA / Pass
+0.25
+0.34
Rushing Yards
35
195
Rush Attempts
11
32
Yards / Rush
3.2
6.1
EPA / Rush
+0.05
+0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
23
Passing 1st downs
22
12
Rushing 1st downs
2
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
25%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
2
9
3rd Down Attempts
8
15
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-1.88
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-15
-7
Sack EPA
-2.89
-1.30
Penalties
3
3
Penalty Yards
15
10
Penalty EPA
-3.14
-2.25
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-63
Home nfelo
1,460
Away nfelo
1,588
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+8.7
Home QB Adjustment
+10.7
Away QB Adjustment
+2.1
Market Regression
+40.8
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.1
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+10.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
18
Yards / Game
6
10
Passing Yards / Game
2
21
Rushing Yards / Game
27
13
EPA
EPA / Play
9
22
EPA / Pass
3
16
EPA / Rush
30
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
15
Interceptions / Game
17
23
Fumbles / Game
2
3
Turnover EPA / Game
23
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
7
4th Down Efficiency
32
20
RZ Efficiency
9
18
Panthers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
6
Yards / Game
13
24
Passing Yards / Game
11
23
Rushing Yards / Game
9
19
EPA
EPA / Play
12
10
EPA / Pass
11
12
EPA / Rush
6
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
28
Interceptions / Game
7
6
Fumbles / Game
7
10
Turnover EPA / Game
25
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
26
4th Down Efficiency
27
9
RZ Efficiency
10
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
9-1
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Panthers
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U