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  1. nfelo...
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  3. falcons @ patriots week 3, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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ATL logo
ATLFalcons
2-0
10
TBD
Gillette Stadium
62°F
0
26
NEPatriots
1-1
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
62°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
3
7
0
0
10
Patriots
3
10
3
10
26

Spread

NE logo
-4.5

Total

UNDER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Falcons logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
257
445
Total Plays
45
81
Yards / Play
5.7
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.03
+0.17
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
17/28(61%)
25/42(60%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.16
+0.23
Rushing Yards
58
168
Rush Attempts
17
39
Yards / Rush
3.4
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.22
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
Falcons logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
13
28
Passing 1st downs
11
15
Rushing 1st downs
2
10
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
22%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
2
8
3rd Down Attempts
9
18
Red Zone %
50%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Falcons logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.50
--
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
7
2
Penalty Yards
54
--
Penalty EPA
-6.24
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+109
Home nfelo
1,590
Away nfelo
1,550
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.2
Home QB Adjustment
+16.9
Away QB Adjustment
+10.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5

Quarterbacks

M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+10.6
Value
Ptile
11/16
0.1
52
11/23
1.7
63
11/30
3.2
74
12/07
7.6
94
12/14
-1.5
40
12/21
-2.1
36
12/28
-5.9
11
01/03
-3.6
24
09/13
2.1
64
09/20
5.8
86
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+16.9
Value
Ptile
12/09
15.7
100
12/16
-4.1
25
12/23
-1.5
38
12/29
10.4
96
01/12
10.8
97
01/20
-1.9
36
02/03
-0.5
46
09/07
-2.1
35
09/14
9.4
95
09/20
-3.4
28

Team Matchup Ranks

Falcons Offense vs Patriots Defense
Falcons logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
13
6
Yards / Game
16
9
Passing Yards / Game
29
18
Rushing Yards / Game
13
19

EPA

EPA / Play
15
10
EPA / Pass
11
14
EPA / Rush
13
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
29
Interceptions / Game
18
11
Fumbles / Game
8
27
Turnover EPA / Game
14
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
19
4th Down Efficiency
3
14
RZ Efficiency
13
22
Patriots Offense vs Falcons Defense
Patriots logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
6
13
Yards / Game
4
20
Passing Yards / Game
17
22
Rushing Yards / Game
14
9

EPA

EPA / Play
6
14
EPA / Pass
9
24
EPA / Rush
11
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
24
Interceptions / Game
15
16
Fumbles / Game
18
12
Turnover EPA / Game
19
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
32
4th Down Efficiency
13
13
RZ Efficiency
11
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ATL logo

Falcons

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
1-1-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/16
-4
L
L
P
11/23
17
W
W
P
11/30
6
W
W
P
12/07
-4
L
L
P
12/14
3
W
L
P
12/21
7
W
W
P
12/28
4
W
L
P
01/03
-6
L
L
P
09/13
12
W
W
U
09/20
8
W
W
O
NE logo

Patriots

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
1-1-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/09
10
W
W
P
11/13
-3
L
L
P
11/23
20
W
W
P
11/30
-23
L
L
P
12/07
3
W
L
P
12/14
23
W
W
P
12/21
40
W
W
P
12/28
13
W
W
P
09/14
1
W
L
O
09/20
-7
L
L
U