ATLFalcons
2-0
10
TBD
Gillette Stadium
62°F
026
NEPatriots
1-1
TBD
Gillette Stadium
62°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
3
7
0
0
10
Patriots
3
10
3
10
26
Spread
-4.5
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
257
445
Total Plays
45
81
Yards / Play
5.7
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.03
+0.17
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
17/28(61%)
25/42(60%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.16
+0.23
Rushing Yards
58
168
Rush Attempts
17
39
Yards / Rush
3.4
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.22
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
28
Passing 1st downs
11
15
Rushing 1st downs
2
10
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
22%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
2
8
3rd Down Attempts
9
18
Red Zone %
50%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.50
--
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
7
2
Penalty Yards
54
--
Penalty EPA
-6.24
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+109
Home nfelo
1,590
Away nfelo
1,550
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.2
Home QB Adjustment
+16.9
Away QB Adjustment
+10.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+10.6
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+16.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
6
Yards / Game
16
9
Passing Yards / Game
29
18
Rushing Yards / Game
13
19
EPA
EPA / Play
15
10
EPA / Pass
11
14
EPA / Rush
13
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
29
Interceptions / Game
18
11
Fumbles / Game
8
27
Turnover EPA / Game
14
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
19
4th Down Efficiency
3
14
RZ Efficiency
13
22
Patriots Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
13
Yards / Game
4
20
Passing Yards / Game
17
22
Rushing Yards / Game
14
9
EPA
EPA / Play
6
14
EPA / Pass
9
24
EPA / Rush
11
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
24
Interceptions / Game
15
16
Fumbles / Game
18
12
Turnover EPA / Game
19
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
32
4th Down Efficiency
13
13
RZ Efficiency
11
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
1-1-8
O/U
Patriots
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
1-1-8
O/U