ATLFalcons
3-2
7
TBD
Gillette Stadium
56°F
2 mph
23
NEPatriots
4-2
TBD
Gillette Stadium
56°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
0
0
7
7
Patriots
0
17
3
3
23
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
56.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
343
403
Total Plays
56
67
Yards / Play
6.1
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.11
+0.17
Passing Yards
223
241
Comp/Att
23/33(70%)
21/29(72%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
8.3
EPA / Pass
+0.01
+0.48
Rushing Yards
120
162
Rush Attempts
22
36
Yards / Rush
5.5
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.14
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
25
Passing 1st downs
13
13
Rushing 1st downs
8
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
22%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
9
13
Red Zone %
25%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-10
-8
Sack EPA
-1.36
-2.34
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
--
65
Penalty EPA
--
-6.59
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model62.6%
Spread Pick
Patriots-3.0
Expected Value
+4.3%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+129
Home nfelo
1,639
Away nfelo
1,589
Home Field
+57.0
Base HFA
+57.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+21.1
Home QB Adjustment
+12.2
Away QB Adjustment
-8.9
Market Regression
-26.4
Final Difference
89.6
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-8.9
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+12.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
7
Yards / Game
11
30
Passing Yards / Game
10
28
Rushing Yards / Game
14
20
EPA
EPA / Play
7
26
EPA / Pass
7
24
EPA / Rush
20
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
21
Interceptions / Game
8
22
Fumbles / Game
13
30
Turnover EPA / Game
27
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
22
4th Down Efficiency
24
17
RZ Efficiency
26
7
Patriots Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
6
Yards / Game
1
8
Passing Yards / Game
2
20
Rushing Yards / Game
15
9
EPA
EPA / Play
1
21
EPA / Pass
1
18
EPA / Rush
8
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
26
Interceptions / Game
2
30
Fumbles / Game
6
18
Turnover EPA / Game
31
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
17
4th Down Efficiency
4
29
RZ Efficiency
3
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Patriots
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U