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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. falcons @ patriots week 7, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ATL logo
ATLFalcons
3-2
7
TBD
Gillette Stadium
56°F
2 mph
23
NEPatriots
4-2
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
56°F
2 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
0
0
7
7
Patriots
0
17
3
3
23

Spread

NE logo
-3

Total

UNDER
56.5

Game Statistics

General
Falcons logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
343
403
Total Plays
56
67
Yards / Play
6.1
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.11
+0.17
Passing Yards
223
241
Comp/Att
23/33(70%)
21/29(72%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
8.3
EPA / Pass
+0.01
+0.48
Rushing Yards
120
162
Rush Attempts
22
36
Yards / Rush
5.5
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.14
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
Falcons logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
21
25
Passing 1st downs
13
13
Rushing 1st downs
8
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
22%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
9
13
Red Zone %
25%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Falcons logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-10
-8
Sack EPA
-1.36
-2.34
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
--
65
Penalty EPA
--
-6.59

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model62.6%
Spread Pick
NE logo
Patriots-3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+4.3%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+129
Home nfelo
1,640
Away nfelo
1,590
Home Field
+57.8
Base HFA
+57.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+21.1
Home QB Adjustment
+12.2
Away QB Adjustment
-8.9
Market Regression
-26.2
Final Difference
89.8
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-8.9
Value
Ptile
12/24
4.0
78
01/01
9.2
95
01/14
6.0
86
01/22
15.1
100
02/05
1.1
57
09/10
3.2
75
09/17
-0.1
51
09/24
-2.1
38
10/01
-2.4
36
10/15
-1.1
44
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+12.2
Value
Ptile
01/01
8.0
93
01/14
-3.3
25
01/22
9.6
96
02/05
5.5
84
09/07
-4.8
20
09/17
10.5
98
09/24
9.3
96
10/01
4.5
82
10/05
0.6
56
10/15
0.5
55

Team Matchup Ranks

Falcons Offense vs Patriots Defense
Falcons logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
15
7
Yards / Game
11
30
Passing Yards / Game
10
28
Rushing Yards / Game
14
20

EPA

EPA / Play
7
26
EPA / Pass
7
24
EPA / Rush
20
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
21
Interceptions / Game
8
22
Fumbles / Game
13
30
Turnover EPA / Game
27
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
22
4th Down Efficiency
24
17
RZ Efficiency
26
7
Patriots Offense vs Falcons Defense
Patriots logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
2
6
Yards / Game
1
8
Passing Yards / Game
2
20
Rushing Yards / Game
15
9

EPA

EPA / Play
1
21
EPA / Pass
1
18
EPA / Rush
8
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
26
Interceptions / Game
2
30
Fumbles / Game
6
18
Turnover EPA / Game
31
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
17
4th Down Efficiency
4
29
RZ Efficiency
3
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ATL logo

Falcons

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/24
17
W
W
O
01/01
6
W
L
O
01/14
16
W
W
O
01/22
23
W
W
O
02/05
-6
L
L
O
09/10
6
W
L
U
09/17
11
W
W
O
09/24
4
W
W
O
10/01
-6
L
L
U
10/15
-3
L
L
U
NE logo

Patriots

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/01
21
W
W
O
01/14
18
W
W
O
01/22
19
W
W
O
02/05
6
W
W
O
09/07
-15
L
L
O
09/17
16
W
W
O
09/24
3
W
L
O
10/01
-3
L
L
O
10/05
5
W
W
U
10/15
7
W
L
U