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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. falcons @ rams week 11, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    Weekly confidence pool picks
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

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  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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ATL logo
ATLFalcons
7-2
34
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0
17
LARRams
4-5
LAR logo
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
3
13
7
11
34
Rams
7
3
7
0
17

Spread

ATL logo
-3.5

Total

OVER
43

Game Statistics

General
Falcons logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
393
304
Total Plays
71
54
Yards / Play
5.5
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.20
-0.16
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
26/40(65%)
27/42(64%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.27
-0.12
Rushing Yards
138
71
Rush Attempts
31
12
Yards / Rush
4.5
5.9
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
Falcons logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
24
15
Passing 1st downs
17
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
53%
10%
3rd Down Conversions
9
1
3rd Down Attempts
17
10
Red Zone %
40%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Falcons logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-5.20
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
--
54
Penalty EPA
--
-6.34

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-116
Home nfelo
1,375
Away nfelo
1,556
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-7.3
Home QB Adjustment
+16.5
Away QB Adjustment
+23.8
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+23.8
Value
Ptile
01/03
0.6
54
09/12
-1.4
40
09/19
5.1
83
09/26
3.7
74
10/03
-2.5
31
10/10
-1.7
39
10/17
-0.8
44
10/24
8.6
94
11/07
4.4
79
11/11
7.6
92
S. Bradford headshot

S. Bradford

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+16.5
Value
Ptile
09/12
-5.0
18
09/19
-2.8
30
09/26
-0.4
46
10/03
-1.3
41
10/10
-6.7
10
10/17
-0.6
45
10/24
-0.9
43
10/31
4.3
77
11/14
2.9
69

Team Matchup Ranks

Falcons Offense vs Rams Defense
Falcons logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
6
11
Yards / Game
19
18
Passing Yards / Game
26
18
Rushing Yards / Game
13
17

EPA

EPA / Play
7
5
EPA / Pass
7
7
EPA / Rush
16
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
18
Interceptions / Game
4
19
Fumbles / Game
15
10
Turnover EPA / Game
30
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
3
4th Down Efficiency
4
19
RZ Efficiency
6
12
Rams Offense vs Falcons Defense
Rams logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
26
6
Yards / Game
27
19
Passing Yards / Game
16
29
Rushing Yards / Game
25
10

EPA

EPA / Play
30
10
EPA / Pass
26
16
EPA / Rush
29
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
28
Interceptions / Game
13
4
Fumbles / Game
1
27
Turnover EPA / Game
19
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
24
4th Down Efficiency
11
21
RZ Efficiency
31
21

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ATL logo

Falcons

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/03
10
W
W
U
09/12
-6
L
L
U
09/19
34
W
W
O
09/26
3
W
W
O
10/03
2
W
L
U
10/10
10
W
W
U
10/17
-14
L
L
O
10/24
7
W
W
O
11/07
6
W
L
O
11/11
5
W
W
O
LAR logo

Rams

4-6
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/03
-22
L
L
U
09/12
-4
L
L
U
09/19
-2
L
W
U
09/26
14
W
W
O
10/03
17
W
W
U
10/10
-38
L
L
O
10/17
3
W
W
U
10/24
-1
L
W
U
10/31
10
W
W
U
11/14
-3
L
W
O