ATLFalcons
7-2
34
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
017
LARRams
4-5
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
3
13
7
11
34
Rams
7
3
7
0
17
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
393
304
Total Plays
71
54
Yards / Play
5.5
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.20
-0.16
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
26/40(65%)
27/42(64%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.27
-0.12
Rushing Yards
138
71
Rush Attempts
31
12
Yards / Rush
4.5
5.9
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
15
Passing 1st downs
17
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
53%
10%
3rd Down Conversions
9
1
3rd Down Attempts
17
10
Red Zone %
40%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-5.20
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
--
54
Penalty EPA
--
-6.34
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-116
Home nfelo
1,375
Away nfelo
1,556
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-7.3
Home QB Adjustment
+16.5
Away QB Adjustment
+23.8
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+23.8
S. Bradford
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+16.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
11
Yards / Game
19
18
Passing Yards / Game
26
18
Rushing Yards / Game
13
17
EPA
EPA / Play
7
5
EPA / Pass
7
7
EPA / Rush
16
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
18
Interceptions / Game
4
19
Fumbles / Game
15
10
Turnover EPA / Game
30
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
3
4th Down Efficiency
4
19
RZ Efficiency
6
12
Rams Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
6
Yards / Game
27
19
Passing Yards / Game
16
29
Rushing Yards / Game
25
10
EPA
EPA / Play
30
10
EPA / Pass
26
16
EPA / Rush
29
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
28
Interceptions / Game
13
4
Fumbles / Game
1
27
Turnover EPA / Game
19
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
24
4th Down Efficiency
11
21
RZ Efficiency
31
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Rams
4-6
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U