ATLFalcons
7-5
42
TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
65°F
1 mph
14
LARRams
4-8
TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
65°F
1 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
7
8
15
0
30
Rams
0
0
0
14
14
Spread
-5
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
286
312
Total Plays
57
67
Yards / Play
5.0
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.11
-0.44
Passing Yards
220
208
Comp/Att
18/30(60%)
24/41(59%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.45
-0.43
Rushing Yards
66
104
Rush Attempts
25
23
Yards / Rush
2.6
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
21
Passing 1st downs
12
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
31%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
5
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
--
-32.41
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-17
-27
Sack EPA
-1.94
-11.25
Penalties
5
11
Penalty Yards
40
105
Penalty EPA
-6.28
-10.31
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market67.5%
Model60.5%
Spread Pick
Rams+5.0
Expected Value
+15.2%
Cover Probability
59.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-27
Home nfelo
1,432
Away nfelo
1,550
Home Field
+97.5
Base HFA
+57.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
+20.4
Net QB Adjustment
-6.2
Home QB Adjustment
+9.8
Away QB Adjustment
+16.0
Market Regression
+1.3
Final Difference
-74.2
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+16.0
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+9.8
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
22
Yards / Game
2
9
Passing Yards / Game
2
13
Rushing Yards / Game
5
16
EPA
EPA / Play
1
17
EPA / Pass
1
18
EPA / Rush
4
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
2
Interceptions / Game
3
22
Fumbles / Game
4
20
Turnover EPA / Game
32
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
10
4th Down Efficiency
9
32
RZ Efficiency
9
31
Rams Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
27
Yards / Game
32
27
Passing Yards / Game
23
31
Rushing Yards / Game
31
17
EPA
EPA / Play
32
24
EPA / Pass
32
22
EPA / Rush
31
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
11
Interceptions / Game
30
17
Fumbles / Game
16
15
Turnover EPA / Game
1
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
25
4th Down Efficiency
28
29
RZ Efficiency
24
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U
Rams
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U