ATLFalcons
2-4
7
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
54°F
14 mph
29
BALRavens
4-2
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
54°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
0
0
7
7
Ravens
7
10
3
7
27
Spread
-6.5
Total
UNDER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
254
371
Total Plays
65
62
Yards / Play
3.9
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.25
+0.09
Passing Yards
186
248
Comp/Att
29/44(66%)
16/25(64%)
Yards / Pass
4.2
9.9
EPA / Pass
-0.29
+0.41
Rushing Yards
68
123
Rush Attempts
16
36
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
23
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
27%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-1.23
-7.91
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-42
-10
Sack EPA
-13.54
-2.16
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
76
72
Penalty EPA
-6.54
-12.85
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+160
Home nfelo
1,547
Away nfelo
1,468
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+18.6
Home QB Adjustment
+21.3
Away QB Adjustment
+2.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.7
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+21.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
7
Yards / Game
7
13
Passing Yards / Game
2
27
Rushing Yards / Game
24
3
EPA
EPA / Play
11
13
EPA / Pass
11
23
EPA / Rush
22
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
32
Interceptions / Game
17
21
Fumbles / Game
15
9
Turnover EPA / Game
14
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
17
4th Down Efficiency
14
11
RZ Efficiency
6
2
Ravens Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
27
Yards / Game
12
32
Passing Yards / Game
30
8
Rushing Yards / Game
9
21
EPA
EPA / Play
5
28
EPA / Pass
6
29
EPA / Rush
13
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
20
Interceptions / Game
10
13
Fumbles / Game
7
16
Turnover EPA / Game
26
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
32
4th Down Efficiency
5
19
RZ Efficiency
14
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Ravens
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U