ATLFalcons
-
17
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
023
NOSaints
-
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
10
0
7
0
17
Saints
0
13
7
3
23
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
54.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
367
419
Total Plays
55
66
Yards / Play
6.7
6.3
EPA / Play
-0.03
+0.05
Passing Yards
279
341
Comp/Att
25/38(66%)
26/35(74%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
9.7
EPA / Pass
-0.11
+0.36
Rushing Yards
88
78
Rush Attempts
14
29
Yards / Rush
6.3
2.7
EPA / Rush
+0.18
-0.31
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
18
Passing 1st downs
14
17
Rushing 1st downs
3
1
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
27%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.09
-3.91
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-25
-16
Sack EPA
-4.55
-3.50
Penalties
2
6
Penalty Yards
--
57
Penalty EPA
--
-6.09
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+37
Home nfelo
1,551
Away nfelo
1,534
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-2.9
Home QB Adjustment
+13.5
Away QB Adjustment
+16.4
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+16.4
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+13.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
4
Yards / Game
16
2
Passing Yards / Game
9
3
Rushing Yards / Game
32
20
EPA
EPA / Play
17
11
EPA / Pass
18
6
EPA / Rush
23
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
25
Interceptions / Game
19
28
Fumbles / Game
17
22
Turnover EPA / Game
19
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
5
4th Down Efficiency
21
13
RZ Efficiency
19
16
Saints Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
27
Yards / Game
3
26
Passing Yards / Game
1
11
Rushing Yards / Game
23
31
EPA
EPA / Play
5
32
EPA / Pass
3
30
EPA / Rush
15
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
11
Interceptions / Game
11
29
Fumbles / Game
2
5
Turnover EPA / Game
28
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
32
4th Down Efficiency
16
27
RZ Efficiency
12
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
6-4
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Saints
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U