nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. falcons @ saints week 3, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

ATL logo
ATLFalcons
1-1
27
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0
24
NOSaints
2-0
NO logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Falcons
7
7
3
7
3
27
Saints
14
0
7
3
0
24

Spread

ATL logo
+3

Total

OVER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
Falcons logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
417
398
Total Plays
82
56
Yards / Play
5.1
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.03
Passing Yards
215
355
Comp/Att
19/30(63%)
30/38(79%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
9.3
EPA / Pass
+0.43
+0.23
Rushing Yards
202
43
Rush Attempts
50
16
Yards / Rush
4.0
2.7
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.50
Downs & Conversions
Falcons logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
25
20
Passing 1st downs
12
17
Rushing 1st downs
10
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
50%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
9
6
3rd Down Attempts
18
11
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Falcons logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-7.92
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-13
-10
Sack EPA
-3.22
-3.03
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
40
38
Penalty EPA
-3.72
-4.88

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+59
Home nfelo
1,594
Away nfelo
1,571
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+13.2
Home QB Adjustment
+18.4
Away QB Adjustment
+5.2
Market Regression
-50.6
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+5.2
Value
Ptile
11/02
-5.8
15
11/08
-3.0
31
11/15
-2.2
37
11/22
2.8
68
11/29
-5.6
16
12/20
-0.0
49
12/27
3.2
71
01/03
0.6
54
09/12
-1.4
40
09/19
5.1
83
D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+18.4
Value
Ptile
11/30
14.0
99
12/06
9.7
96
12/13
9.2
95
12/19
-0.0
49
12/27
7.9
92
01/16
7.4
90
01/24
3.0
69
02/07
8.6
94
09/09
3.5
72
09/20
5.7
86

Team Matchup Ranks

Falcons Offense vs Saints Defense
Falcons logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
6
10
Yards / Game
19
9
Passing Yards / Game
26
5
Rushing Yards / Game
13
18

EPA

EPA / Play
7
16
EPA / Pass
7
13
EPA / Rush
16
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
30
Interceptions / Game
4
32
Fumbles / Game
15
6
Turnover EPA / Game
30
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
7
4th Down Efficiency
4
28
RZ Efficiency
6
5
Saints Offense vs Falcons Defense
Saints logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
8
6
Yards / Game
5
19
Passing Yards / Game
2
29
Rushing Yards / Game
28
10

EPA

EPA / Play
8
10
EPA / Pass
6
16
EPA / Rush
21
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
28
Interceptions / Game
26
4
Fumbles / Game
20
27
Turnover EPA / Game
13
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
24
4th Down Efficiency
19
21
RZ Efficiency
19
21

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ATL logo

Falcons

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/15
-9
L
L
O
11/22
-3
L
W
O
11/29
3
W
L
U
12/06
-27
L
L
U
12/13
-3
L
W
U
12/20
3
W
W
U
12/27
28
W
W
U
01/03
10
W
W
U
09/12
-6
L
L
U
09/19
34
W
W
O
NO logo

Saints

7-3
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/06
3
W
L
O
12/13
3
W
L
U
12/19
-7
L
L
U
12/27
-3
L
L
U
01/03
-13
L
L
U
01/16
31
W
W
O
01/24
3
W
L
O
02/07
14
W
W
U
09/09
5
W
W
U
09/20
3
W
L
O