ATLFalcons
1-1
27
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
024
NOSaints
2-0
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Falcons
7
7
3
7
3
27
Saints
14
0
7
3
0
24
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
417
398
Total Plays
82
56
Yards / Play
5.1
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.03
Passing Yards
215
355
Comp/Att
19/30(63%)
30/38(79%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
9.3
EPA / Pass
+0.43
+0.23
Rushing Yards
202
43
Rush Attempts
50
16
Yards / Rush
4.0
2.7
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.50
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
20
Passing 1st downs
12
17
Rushing 1st downs
10
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
50%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
9
6
3rd Down Attempts
18
11
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-7.92
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-13
-10
Sack EPA
-3.22
-3.03
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
40
38
Penalty EPA
-3.72
-4.88
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+59
Home nfelo
1,593
Away nfelo
1,571
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+13.2
Home QB Adjustment
+18.4
Away QB Adjustment
+5.2
Market Regression
-50.6
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+5.2
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+18.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
10
Yards / Game
19
9
Passing Yards / Game
26
5
Rushing Yards / Game
13
18
EPA
EPA / Play
7
16
EPA / Pass
7
13
EPA / Rush
16
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
30
Interceptions / Game
4
32
Fumbles / Game
15
6
Turnover EPA / Game
30
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
7
4th Down Efficiency
4
28
RZ Efficiency
6
5
Saints Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
6
Yards / Game
5
19
Passing Yards / Game
2
29
Rushing Yards / Game
28
10
EPA
EPA / Play
8
10
EPA / Pass
6
16
EPA / Rush
21
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
28
Interceptions / Game
26
4
Fumbles / Game
20
27
Turnover EPA / Game
13
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
24
4th Down Efficiency
19
21
RZ Efficiency
19
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Saints
7-3
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U